For Rudy, It's The Delegates, Stupid
By: Mark W Adams

Wanna know why Rudy 9iu11ni is still smiling, one thing the gas bags on TeeVee never make clear? Rudy can run the table in his home turf and be up 258 to zero in just these five states by Tsunami Tuesday.

1/29 Florida 57 Delegates -- WINNER TAKE ALL
2/5 New York 101 Delegates -- WINNER TAKE ALL
2/5 New Jersey 52 Delegates -- WINNER TAKE ALL
2/5 Connecticut 30 Delegates -- WINNER TAKE ALL
2/5 Deleware 18 Delegates -- WINNER TAKE ALL

Right now, Florida is a four-way tie and Rudy is in the lead by one point -- but he only has 21% of the total support of those expressing a preference.

If he only gets 25% in each of "his" states, he can walk away sole owner of their 258 delegate because the other 75% will be divided between the Ron Paul Blimpies, and the three guys who have actually won something so far, Romney, McCain and Huckabee.

That plus a lucky pick up of one or more of the four other states with winner-take-all contests where 202 delegates are at stake, along with a plurality of the rest of states going on Feb. 5th who award delegates as a proportion of the vote count -- Rudy could easily be WAY ahead of the pack -- proclaimed a genius, come-back kid number 3 and frontrunner in one day.

It's the media's dream come true.

In fact, as long as Rudy captures his base states, needing only a pathetic 23% or so to "win" while resoundingly rejected by the vast majority of New York, Florida, Jersey, Deleware and Connecticut Repubicans; McCain could win all the other winner-take-all states (W.Va., Mont., Utah, Ariz., Missouri), split the other Tsunami Tuesday states and still be behind Rudy.

And McCain won't win Utah. That's Romney's.

Let's do the math, just for fun. (**Source RCP -- CNN has different delegate counts awarded to date.) Delegate Awards based on latest poll data from USA Election Polls. Numbers below represent latest polling percentage of total delegates per state.

(Note, the Arizona poll is obviously old, showing Rudy winning instead of McCain -- which won't happen. Some of the other smaller states did not include Huckabee, let alone Paul, and were done prior to Huckabee's surprising rise -- and some states never have been polled at all. Numbers are rounded leaving fractional arithmetic errors we can ignore.)

"W"=Winner Take ALL 

Florida 1/29 57-W 0 0 0 57 0
Maine 2/1 21 3 . 1 2 .
California 2/5 173 29 22 42 19 10
New.York 2/5 101-W . . . 101 .
New.Jersey 2/5 52-W . . . 52 .
Georgia 2/5 72 10 22 13 6 0
Arizona 2/5 53-W . . . 53 .
Alabama 2/5 48 4 12 11 2 1
Oklahoma 2/5 41 3 13 12 5 1
Colorado 2/5 46 4 2 5 9 0
Illinois 2/5 70 10 15 8 16 2
Utah 2/5 36-W 36 . . . .
Missouri 2/5 58-W . . . 58 .
Arkansas 2/5 34 2 20 3 3 1
Delaware 2/5 18-W . . . 18 .
Minnesota 2/5 41 2 1 9 11 1
Tennessee 2/5 55 . . . . .
Massachusetts 2/5 43 . . . . .
Connecticut 2/5 30-W . . 39 . .
West.Virginia 2/5 30 2 0 10 9 0
Alaska 2/5 29 . . . . .
North.Dakota 2/5 26 . . . . .
Even if Arizona were to pick McCain -- Rudy is still ahead 369 to McCain's 242.  Rudy's advantage is that unlike Romney and Huckabee, everybody knows him.  McCain and Rudy did not have to be introduced to the American public.  Of course, now that introductions are over, the race is on.  Huckabee is sure to do well in Tennessee and Romney will clean up in Massachusetts where we have no polling data. 

But that doesn't bring 9iu11ani down or help the the guy most likely to catch him, McCain. Worse news, the next big contest after Feb 5 in Ohio, where Rudy's ahead by 16%, although he's way behind in Texas that same day, March 4. But it's Huckabee plugged in right now to take that winner take all state.

But there's always movement, for instance, it looks like McCain has found a weakness in the soft underbelly of Rudy's home turf, New Jersey and Connecticut.

Florida is of course the key to Rudy's demise. If someone edges him out there, even by the slimmest of hanging chads, he gets zero delegates and has no momentum or media buzz (not any good buzz anyway) going into Tsunami Tuesday. If he loses NJ and CT on Feb 5th, my chart's inaccuracies become to large to ignore because that switches NJ's 52 delegates -- putting Rudy and McCain in spitting distance of each other. Take FloriDUH out of the mix, awarding those 57 delegates to anyone but Rudy and McCain becomes the dominate player.

If McCain wins Florida -- it's all over. Rudy won't catch him and Romney can't. Huckabee's Dominionists will revolt either way and probably stay home come the general election anyway, and the GOP can't win the presidency without the evangelicals. So all this is academic -- as is Huckabee's candidacy -- it was South Carolina or bust with him (unless he get's Florida).

Obviously this is an approximation of the broadest kind and is in no way a realistic projection of the final results and ignores a substantial undecided voters -- but it give pause to show that state-by-state, disregarding national polling numbers, Rudy 9iu11iani CAN NOT BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED -- Especially if he gets Florida.


Fortunately for us Democrats, Rudy the asshole will be crushed by frontrunning Hillary (Obama or Edwards ... not so much). The difference is Hillary's edge in the Greater New York Area for the electoral college edge. Obama and Edwards would have to fight Rudy on that home turf much harder.