1/9/08

As Good A Theory As Anything
By: Mark W Adams


Gaming the system and out-thinking the pollsters and punditry gives the Live Free or Die State residents a particular joy, and they out thunk themselves. Cuz the alternative, that independent voters anywhere actually prefer John McCain to Barack Obama, is inconceivable.

Really, if that's the case, just shoot me.

See, in those states where they say voters take it seriously and pay attention, they read the same polls as everyone else. If Barack was really going to beat Hillary by double digits, he didn't need nears as much help as McCain.

Anyone with any ideas on a better way of picking the Leader of the Free World, feel free to offer your suggestions. This is crazy, but way more fun than I should be allowed to have. Watching Tweety eat crow is just the icing on the cake.

4 Comments:

arubyan said...

That's plausible.

How does it comport with the surprising outcome that Obama lost the womens' vote coming out of Iowa?

KevinHayden said...

Tweety would only consent to eating hirsute manly crow, because dames is too icky.

As far as Obama 'losing' the women's vote, he didn't lose some huge amount. A big part of the difference was the bigger turnout of older women voters who preferred Clinton in both states.

Then there was some lashback against the piling on that occurred the last two days [ much of it driven by others in the media, not Obama.

Other factors: regionalism, NH's independent streak and its record of foiling pollsters, its record of past support for the Clintons, etc.

I didn't see Obama make any serious gaffes, did you?


As to a better elective process, my Dad proposed making it completely random, like getting called for jury duty. I protested: "what if they're a felon or retarded or something?"

He replied: "As citizens, shouldn't they be represented too?"

Can't find a more democratic vision than that, I'd say.

shep said...

You know, this wouldn’t be a big story if it weren’t for the fact that polls are usually pretty damned accurate. I’m simply amazed that I haven’t heard any of the crow-eating pollsters make that point. IJS.

On the Obama surprise, the two obvious answers are that female voters came out strong for Hillary as a backlash against recent treatment of her and that people simply lied when they said they’d support Obama. You can decide for yourself why they would do that.

Mark W Adams said...

actually, the polls were pretty damn accurate, nailing Obama and Edwards numbers, and the whole GOP field. They even indicated a very soft support for Edwards and Obama and a large undecided percentage for that late in the game. If people were lying to the pollsters, that wouldn't be the result.

I don't buy the Bradley effect at all. I think between the Tweety effect of bashing Hillary creating unanticipated sympathy for Hillary and the Ganging Up impression left by Edwards electing to team up with Obama to kill her chances there was a backlash and Clinton closed the deal in the last day after all the pollsters closed up shop.