Friday Map Blogging
By: Mark W Adams

the iraq, maps
Good and bad news from Pollster.com today. The good news is that they've moved the national polling trend line from "Toss-Up" to "Lean Obama." McCain's numbers look like a flat-line on a heart monitor, stuck at 42.3% on the trend line with Obama +2.6 at 44.9%.

Accessing pretty much the same data, Real Clear Politics has Obama up by a bit more, +3.5 but the percentages are similar. But as we all know by now, (class, are you paying attention?) it's all about the electoral college map.

Getting to the bad news from Pollster.com. They've moved yet another state McCain's way, changing North Carolina from Toss-Up to Lean McCain. Michigan too is moving in the wrong direction, now just a Lean Obama state instead of strongly in Barack's corner.

I trust none of this news is earth shattering. It certainly isn't to 538.com, who had Michigan there for some time. RCP lists Michigan as a true Toss-Up on their map. They also put Ohio in the No F-ing Clue category but doesn't take the bait on the North Carolina that moved it to deep red at 538.com who note Rassmussen now has NC safely in the GOP's column at +6.

Here's the horse race for the electors:

RCP w/147 toss-ups: Obama +65
RCP w/o toss-ups: Obama +70
538.com, no toss-ups: Obama +34.4
Pollster, 85 toss-ups: Obama +115

I'm going to delve some more into the numbers and play with my cartograms some more and should have something neat to oogle, or Google, tonight or tomorrow morning. Bottom line, however, barring something catastrophic this thing is still Obama's election to lose.