12/29/07

Interesting Times
By: Mark W Adams


This little tidbit caught my eye, and it seems like the first economic news that came down the pike in a while that seems positive -- something that might beat back the recession drumbeat the housing/credit/subprime mess Atrios calls The Big Shitpile indicates is on the horizon.

China, it turns out, isn't a $10-trillion economy on the brink of catching up with the United States. It is a $6-trillion economy, less than half our size. For the foreseeable future, China will have far less money to spend on its military and will face much deeper social and economic problems at home than experts previously believed.
At least, it could be mostly good news for us, not so good for China. But seeing as the economy really just boils down to perception as much as anything, a belief in the full faith and credit of the US -- which is really all that paper with pictures of presidents is. This is a perception that bodes well.
The political consequences will be felt far and wide. To begin with, the U.S. will remain the world's largest economy well into the future. Given that fact, fears that China will challenge the U.S. for global political leadership seem overblown. Under the old figures, China was predicted to pass the United States as the world's largest economy in 2012. That isn't going to happen.
I'm not saying I'm bullish on the American economy, but it looks like we'll weather the coming storm in the long term. In the short term, buy a good mattress and stuff it with all your spare greenbacks, cuz there's really nowhere to put your money as far as I can see. My eternal fallback, investing in real estate, is the worst place to put your money for at least a year or two.

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