12/11/07

Edwards Still Most Electable Dem
By: Mark W Adams


You have got to see these numbers!

Verfiy the Numbers (pdf)

Read The Story

General Election Polling Review

CNN / Opinion Research - National: December 11, 2007

Vs. Mitt Romney

Clinton - 54%
Romney - 43%

Obama - 54%
Romney - 41%

Edwards - 59%
Romney - 37%

Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 13%, Edwards leads by 22%

Vs. Rudy Giuliani

Clinton - 51%
Giuliani - 45%

Obama - 52%
Giuliani - 45%

Edwards - 53%
Giuliani - 44%

Clinton leads by 6%, ! Obama le ads by 7%, Edwards leads by 9%

Vs. Mike Huckabee

Clinton - 54%
Huckabee - 44%

Obama - 55%
Huckabee - 40%

Edwards - 60%
Huckabee - 35%

Clinton leads by 10%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 25%

Vs. John McCain

Clinton - 48% !
McCain - 50%

Obama - 48%
McCain - 48%

Edwards - 52%
McCain - 44%

Clinton trails by 2%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 8%

Averages

Clinton leads the Republicans by 6.25%
Obama leads the Republicans by 8.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by 16.00%

4 Comments:

arubyan said...

Ok, I read the links, Mr. Buckeye, and no one could answer the following questions, so perhaps you can do so:

1. Why isn't Edwards the overwhelming favorite among Dem primary voters? Or more to the point --

2. Why isn't "electability" such a crucial issue with primary voters? And if it isn't --

3. Just what exactly does Edwards have going for him? Is it that he gets more independent voters than Clinton and Obama? And if that's the case --

4. If he can't get the nomination but he wins the general, how is he any different than Joe Lieberman in Connecticut?

I'll hang up and listen to your answer.

:^)

P.S. I love you, man!

Mark W Adams said...

1, 2 and 3 are just part of the same question. The easy (Tweedy) answer is that Democratic Primary voters are less sexist and racist than independents and cross-over GOPers.

Getting beyond that, there probably is a considerable contingent (ahem) who think that a populist economic message won't fly in the general so they're shying away from the more liberal candidates the Village Press tells them won't/can't win.

Number 4 is just insulting. Idology aside -- where the differences couldn't be more stark, I believe you are looking at the numbers and saying that IF Edwards were to go 3rd-party independent, he could win just like Liberman. This is a fallacy of the highest order Ara.

Unlike Lieberman, Edwards does not enjoy a majority of GOPers support. More GOPers voted for Lieberman than the "official" GOP candidate. Had Lieberman run in the GOP primary, he would have won handily. This is not the case for Edwards AMONG GOP voters.

What is happening is that Edwards gets more of the independents and a bigger slice of a small cross-over GOP minority contingent than any of his fellow Dems in hypothetical matchups.

You know this crap Ara. Why are you asking me to interpret polls? You're better at it than me.

arubyan said...

Cool your jets, my friend. I'm just trying to connect some dots here.

What is happening is that Edwards gets more of the independents and a bigger slice of a small cross-over GOP minority contingent than any of his fellow Dems in hypothetical matchups.

Then it really is the same deal with Lieberman excepting only in the degree to which it is true. The largest part of Edwards' constituency is not core Democrats, but rather the more (comparitively) moderate parts of the general electorate. Given that Edwards is a populist. it is ironic, no?

I say this with respect: The prophet has no honor in his native land.

What's that sound outside? Oh crap. It's the Edwards clones from dKos. And, look! They've got pitchforks and torches. Bless their hearts....

Gotta run!

Mark W Adams said...

Hey, I didn't mean to sound defensive. I didn't think you were being too shrill at all.

Take a look at page A-10 of today's Washington Post for more understanding of the Edwards campaign from the Village's perspective.

Anne E. Kornblut
and
Dana Milbank