10/27/08

Democratic Blowout? Why You Shouldn't Believe It
By: Ara


We're hearing it every day, all day: "Unnamed senior Republicans" believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat. Barack Obama will win a "massive mandate." He will be handed more political power than "any president in a generation."


And -- who knows? -- maybe some of these Republicans actually believe it. Whether or not they really believe it doesn't matter. It benefits them to talk like that anyway.

It's called "raising the bar" and you know how it works.



Say, for example, Obama's winning margin is closer than currently projected. Say that all the undecideds break for McCain and Obama wins by only 4 points instead of 7 or 8. Yeah, I know: a win is a win. But you and I know that the storyline on election night will NOT be about Obama's historic victory. It will be about the uncertainty and doubt the electorate still has about him ("He couldn't close the deal") and how it will be difficult for him to govern after the election because of this.

They never stop. You know that. They'll be proclaiming that a 4% win means Obama "underperformed." Not exactly the Wilder effect, but you get the picture.

And it isn't just about Obama. For example, what happens if Coleman beats Franken in Minnesota? That race is not a done deal yet. Or Stevens beats Begich in Alaska? The verdict in Stevens' corruption trial may not come down before the election. And what happens if Republicans win back a few hotly contested seats in the House like LA-06? After three decades Cazayoux, the Democrat, won that seat from the Republicans in a special election last summer, but it may yet flip back.

If these things happen, the story on election night will be that Obama has no coattails; that he faces an uphill fight in Congress getting his programs passed; that he's weak.

Let's be blunt: if Obama gets elected it will be a victory of epic proportions. It will signal the end of the Reagan Revolution, the end of 40 years of conservative ascendance. It will signal the end of the Bush/Cheney nightmare.

But you know as well as I do that Republicans will look for any glimmer of hope, any silver lining in the black clouds gathering over their ruin. On election night, they'll be spinning like mad because the campaign for the 2010 midterms begins the next morning. In short, they'll be pronouncing the failure of the Obama administration before he's even sworn in.

It never stops. Never.

But you can help make it go away for a while by throwing the drowning Republicans an anvil. How, you ask?

Every time you hear this is going to be an epic blowout, don't believe it. Instead, call your local Obama field office -- today, now! -- and volunteer to phone or canvas voters in your area. Visit the Obama website and donate. And if your Democratic congressman or Senator is up for re-election, volunteer and/or donate there too.

Because the last thing I want to see on election night is Mitch McConnell's ugly mug breathing a sigh of relief about how the Republicans dodged a bullet.

2 Comments:

Jerry K said...

When McCain wins by 1%, you'll hear the exact same crap from the liberals.

Obama couldn't close the deal, we should have picked Hillary. The electorate is uncertain about McCain, etc..

Trakker said...

I agree with you. Hearing all this landslide talk makes me very nervous. We all know the American people's capacity for caving to the Republican's fearmongering.

The Republicans are now pulling out all the stops and who knows, maybe they will find the magic bullet that will switch enough votes.

However, if Obama does get less votes than predicted, it will probably be blamed on the Bradley effect.