The Palin-drome

Why does the VP pick matter so much this time?

Surely there's something of a perfect storm surrounding John McCain's gimmicky decision to put Sarah Palin on the ticket.  There's John's advanced years, but knowing the presidency is a high risk occupation no matter who sits in the big chair (they don't assign Secret Service protection to just anyone), that seems the least of the problem.

A lot has been said about the pick reflecting on McCain's judgment, but I think that's overrated as well.  Not that it doesn't show McCain is impetuous and often acts before thinking -- it does.  But we had ample opportunity to see McCain's seat-of-the-pants decision making style without having Sarah Palin's obvious inadequacies hammering the point home.

It really comes down to this.  Palin matters, and matters in a profoundly negative way if you're a fan of either McCain or Palin, because she's so ridiculously obnoxious.

When she came out of the box, echoing Rudi 9ui11iani and slamming community organizers, she pissed a lot of folks off.  She's been pissing more and more of us off every day.

You can compare her to quite a few VP nominees who weren't perceived as ready for the job on day one.  Quayle and Agnew are obvious examples who didn't prevent their boss from getting elected.  Thomas Eagleton didn't exactly help McGovern, true.  But he didn't spend too much time on the campaign trail undermining the party's chances against a nearly unbeatable Nixon reelection machine in 1972.  In fact, Eagleton was only on the ticket a couple of weeks and was gone by August 1st. He was way down the list of reasons McGovern didn't win. 

Besides, no one ever said Eagleton didn't know how to do the job, just that his electro-shock therapy sessions and illegal prescription for Thorazine might be reason to be concerned -- you might say.

Well, you might.

Okay, he was fucking nutz, clinically so.  Dangerously so.  Probably more troublesome than Caribou Barbie -- but she's wasn't drummed out of the ticket like she should have been, like Eagleton was.

No, Sarah is not suffering from any mental health problems.  Her delusions are a deliberate result of religious fervor, rejection of the scientific method, political opportunism and the usual sociopathic narcissism endemic to most compassionate conservatives of the last few decades.  Oh, and her complete ignorance of the Constitution and founding principles of this country add to the perception that she's a complete whack-job.

But that's not the whole story.  It's a personality thing.  She's irritatingly prideful in her role as smear merchant in chief.  You can tell she delights in attaching someone with a foreign sounding name to Barack Hussein Obama, with no clue whether the guy is a bad guy or not.  It doesn't matter to her and the rump of a party she's destined to lead because they simply don't associate with people whose names don't sound like "real America."

It's obnoxious.  The whole race-baiting, anti-intellectual, hypocritical, lying bag of horse dung package is obnoxious.  It's not "mavericky" to call a 4% tax hike on the richest Americans "socialism," it's obnoxious.  When you govern the nation's largest welfare state, you got some nerve bitching about spreading the wealth.  When you're married to a guy who belongs to a political party dedicated to removing one of the states from the union, you are an obnoxious twit to presume you know which parts of the rest of the United States of America are "real" or patriotic enough to tolerate your obnoxious presence.

So as we wade through mountains of post election rationalization for why John McCain lost against the most impressive political campaign history has ever seen, bumping again and again into the Palin syndrome; just remember how obnoxious she is, how much she pisses so many people off, how many women she insults merely for being the token candidate she is -- and how few, how very few of us "other" Americans can ever imagine wanting to do beers with her.

So Sick Of This

Maybe I'm just sick of being sick since I've been dealing with a chest cold for over a week now.  Maybe it's because I already voted, so in my subconscious I know none of the remaining flourishes of the campaigns make any difference to me personally.  Maybe, no ... without a doubt John McCain, Sarah Palin, their surrogates, spokespeople, bloggers and plumbers have fried my very last nerve.

Four more days.  One long weekend and we will finally have elected Senator Obama.  In just over a hundred hours from now, the polls will begin closing and John McCain will leave us Ohio voters alone, never to return.  Seriously, the guy is like a stalker.

The good news is, if the CNN poll of polls is any indication (and who really knows), he's not making any new friends in the Buckeye State.  McCain's strategy of swamping Ohio with his presence -- chasing down every contrarian in the State who either gets some secret pleasure in confounding pollsters, or is so completely and deliberately uninformed they really should be disqualified from voting -- is just pissing off the rest of us who've made up our minds.

I hear Obama's on his way back here too, just to rub our noses in the fact that Ohio, as usual, is home to the most fickle voters on the planet.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm delighted that unlike John Kerry in 2004, the Democrats have not given up on us, but I wish Arnold Schwarzenegger would.  Of course, it's always a pleasure to welcome Bill Clinton to Toledo, but he wasn't here so much (it seems) to flush out more Obama votes as to allay our fears that Ohio could be lost and turn the scales to McCain if the polls are wrong and Obama doesn't hold on to his slight lead.

During both of his public speeches in Ohio, the former president pointed out how crucial the states's 20 electoral votes are for a Republican win on Tuesday.
"In all those elections since 1836, not a single, solitary Republican has ever been elected without carrying Ohio," he said in Toledo.
"Once in a great while, but rarely, the Democrats have eased in without carrying Ohio, but that's rare … the point is that you have this election and the future of our country in your hands."

Thanks Bill, that makes us all feel so much better.

No wonder Al Gore didn't put this guy out on the stump. If it isn't about him, and campaigning for Hillary was all about him as well, his heart just isn't in it all the way.

Helen Rocks

Just a taste.

New rules:

I will stop calling George Bush a jackass when he stops calling me a terrorist: Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.

I will stop calling John McCain an ass when he stops calling Barack
Obama a socialist at every dog and pony show on the Straight Talk
Express tour.

I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling Obama
a terrorist sympathizer.  And I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch
when she stops calling the parts of the country where I don’t live more
Pro-American than the part of the country where I do live.    And I
will definitely stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops acting
like a bitch.

Andy tells us Helen is 82 years young, lives in Texas, isn't too fond of the blond bimbo on The View either, and gives great blog.

Democratic Blowout? Why You Shouldn't Believe It

We're hearing it every day, all day: "Unnamed senior Republicans" believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat. Barack Obama will win a "massive mandate." He will be handed more political power than "any president in a generation."


And -- who knows? -- maybe some of these Republicans actually believe it. Whether or not they really believe it doesn't matter. It benefits them to talk like that anyway.

It's called "raising the bar" and you know how it works.



Say, for example, Obama's winning margin is closer than currently projected. Say that all the undecideds break for McCain and Obama wins by only 4 points instead of 7 or 8. Yeah, I know: a win is a win. But you and I know that the storyline on election night will NOT be about Obama's historic victory. It will be about the uncertainty and doubt the electorate still has about him ("He couldn't close the deal") and how it will be difficult for him to govern after the election because of this.

They never stop. You know that. They'll be proclaiming that a 4% win means Obama "underperformed." Not exactly the Wilder effect, but you get the picture.

And it isn't just about Obama. For example, what happens if Coleman beats Franken in Minnesota? That race is not a done deal yet. Or Stevens beats Begich in Alaska? The verdict in Stevens' corruption trial may not come down before the election. And what happens if Republicans win back a few hotly contested seats in the House like LA-06? After three decades Cazayoux, the Democrat, won that seat from the Republicans in a special election last summer, but it may yet flip back.

If these things happen, the story on election night will be that Obama has no coattails; that he faces an uphill fight in Congress getting his programs passed; that he's weak.

Let's be blunt: if Obama gets elected it will be a victory of epic proportions. It will signal the end of the Reagan Revolution, the end of 40 years of conservative ascendance. It will signal the end of the Bush/Cheney nightmare.

But you know as well as I do that Republicans will look for any glimmer of hope, any silver lining in the black clouds gathering over their ruin. On election night, they'll be spinning like mad because the campaign for the 2010 midterms begins the next morning. In short, they'll be pronouncing the failure of the Obama administration before he's even sworn in.

It never stops. Never.

But you can help make it go away for a while by throwing the drowning Republicans an anvil. How, you ask?

Every time you hear this is going to be an epic blowout, don't believe it. Instead, call your local Obama field office -- today, now! -- and volunteer to phone or canvas voters in your area. Visit the Obama website and donate. And if your Democratic congressman or Senator is up for re-election, volunteer and/or donate there too.

Because the last thing I want to see on election night is Mitch McConnell's ugly mug breathing a sigh of relief about how the Republicans dodged a bullet.

QOTD

Thers at Whiskey Fire:

The Corner is a porn site for the resentfully ill-educated.

Kinda like a Mecca for the bitter and stupid; those that don't know any better, don't want to know any better, refuse to "get over it," and are paradoxily happy being bitter and miserable.

I'd add several satellite sites to the Corner, you know them. Town Hall, LGF, Free Republic, and to a lesser degree Hot Air and it's affiliates Malkin and Capt'n Ed's personal blogs. Even lesser sites like Dean's World and Atlas Juggs -- they'll all survive and perhaps be more invigorated than ever after the humiliation to come November 4th.

Certainly there'll be some demoralized sulking, more than a few GBCW posts and even more among their commentariate, but they'll be back stupider than ever by inauguration day. Trust me.

Yeah Me! I Voted Today

As did my lovely bride of 17 years.

That's two more Obama votes in the bank.

I have to tell you, I truly recommend the idea of voting from home.  It gives you the leisure to fully research all those ballot issues and make an informed decision -- which means of course that every issue we voted for will be doomed to fail since most folks just flip a coin on these things, or so it seems. 

Also, I can't tell you how many times I've read the papers the day after an election and saw which judges won, and couldn't be certain how I voted.  Now I have record since I copied our ballots.  Since party affiliation is not something you see with judges on Ohio ballots, I'm sure I voted for for a Republican or two over the years, against my better judgment.  This time I know for certain I didn't vote for any conservative ideologues for the bench.

Hilzoy In My Head

Sometimes when just mulling over something, like the strange and sad tale of Ashley Todd, instead of regurgitating whatever's on top of my head and aiming to fix what little there is on the table in the way of actual "fact" to the current political narrative, I wait to see what develops. Then Hilzoy was found inside my skull, taking notes, and writing my thoughts down better than I ever could.

I'd like to give a shout-out to the Pittsburgh police. I know nothing about the officers who worked this case, but it seems unlikely that they are all Democrats, all Republicans, or all any political anything. They are professionals, and they did their jobs. If they hadn't, some tall black man who was just going to the store or taking a walk could have ended up in jail.

***

I'd also like to give a shout-out to all the people who held off on this, and to Michelle Malkin, who did a lot to keep this story from getting completely out of hand. To the people who jumped on the bandwagon: think about the responsibilities that come with having an audience. When a story like this hits, you can try to convince people to withhold judgment until the facts are in, or you can lose your head along with everyone else. It seems like a pretty clear choice to me.

And to McCain's Pennsylvania communications director: now would be a good time to decide to spend more time with your family.

But it took an especially big brain like the on sitting on top of Marcy Wheeler's head to really flesh this story out with some contemporary perspective as she reflected on sitting on the story.

But as I researched this all day, I found myself to be less and less outraged about the McCain campaign's response to this specifically and increasingly outraged over McCain's response to John Lewis' rebuke of McCain's campaign tactics. As a reminder, Lewis said,

As one who was a victim of violence and hate during the height of the Civil Rights Movement, I am deeply disturbed by the negative tone of the McCain-Palin campaign. What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse.

During another period, in the not too distant past, there was a governor of the state of Alabama named George Wallace who also became a presidential candidate. George Wallace never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama.

As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all. They are playing a very dangerous game that disregards the value of the political process and cheapens our entire democracy. We can do better. The American people deserve better.

McCain, of course, lashed out at Lewis (and Obama) in response, ignoring his larger message about conditions that encourage things like Ashely Todd's race-baiting.

You see, as I researched this today, and concluded that--thus far--we have no evidence yet the McCain campaign did anything more than irresponsibly (but not surprisingly) push details it believed to be true, the part of Lewis' statement that talked about the "conditions that encourage vicious attacks" resonated more and more. As Scarecrow reminded me with this link today, Lewis' own history, and that of George Wallace, is a lot more ambivalent and ultimately extended far beyond Wallace's own violence. At this point, all of us have been thrust into a climate that encourages vicious attacks--and guarantees that vicious race-baiters like Ashley Todd will be guaranteed her 15 minutes of infamy.

Like Hilzoy and Marcy, I have to confess that of all people I must give credit to Michelle Malkin who resisted the bait on this one, which did a lot to encourage me to keep my powder dry and no doubt influenced a lot of others to wait for more facts to come in. (Here's a rare approving link to Michelle. She has a lot more rehabilitation to complete before I ever become a "fan," but she get's cudo's for this one.)

Pam Geller of Atlas Shrugs is another story. This lady really gives anything she's associated with a bad name. Unsurprisingly she happily went down crazy lane and insisted on staying there well after Todd's outrageous claims were retracted because, well, you know a lot of other stuff she and her fellow inmates have accused Obama and his evil Democrat supporters of might be true -- but are covered up by the anti-Israel, anti-Atlas, anti-John Bolton international media conspiracy. I'm still waiting for Pam to escape from her cage and "bitchslap" Ashley.

Her non-retraction and failure to condemn her compatriots who pushed this story in the 'spere and in the McCain campaign which gratuitously added the blood liable lie to the travesty merely reinforces my long held conclusion that Geller requires psychological treatment, as much if not more than Ms. Todd.

It's in this way, with the disintegration of the conservative movement, Christopher Buckley's "Pup" may get his wish, the "kooks" are indeed being separated from the herd.

How our economy is more like a poker game than a restaurant

Recently, while I was cleaning a hairball out of the P-trap under my bathroom sink (I couldn't afford to call Joe the Plumber -- his agent wanted too much money) I found this link to a simple story entitled A Dinner for 10 Men: A Parable of Tax Cuts.

It opens like this:

"I'm opposed to those tax cuts," the retired college instructor declared, "because they benefit the rich. The rich get much more money back than ordinary taxpayers like you and me and that's not fair." "But the rich pay more in the first place," the businessman argued, "so it stands to reason that they'd get more money back."

Actually, they don't "pay more." Warren Buffet has famously pointed out that his secretary pays a higher tax rate than he does -- and he thinks that's wrong and has called for the system to be changed to make it right by her.

No matter. The parable goes on to prove the "professor" wrong and the businessman "right" by creating an analogy so idiotically simplistic that it makes my head hurt just thinking about how to summarize it. Instead, I'll simply include the closing paragraphs. You can reverse engineer the story from there if you want:

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up. The next night he didn't show up for dinner, so the nine sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They were $52 short!

And that, boys, girls, and college instructors, is how America's tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up at the table any more.

How do I put this in a respectful way? F#@k you and the horse you rode in on.

This is the sort of after-dinner story-fantasy I'm sure Ronald Reagan enthralled his corporate audiences with back in the early 60s before he became governor of California. It was stupid then and it's stupid now. Unfortunately, we had to live through this fantasy for more than 30 years to see how stupid -- and destructive -- it truly was.

I like a different analogy, one that is more down-to-earth, simpler to follow and much more concise. It's part of the 1951 memoir of Marriner Eccles, the chairman of the Federal Reserve circa 1934-48. In describing the causes of the Depression, he says this:

...[A]s in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

There you have it -- a brilliant flash of insight from 1951. True then, true today. In other words, giving more and more tax breaks to the wealthiest among us, relying on a free market to "trickle-down" wealth to the rest of us, does not work.

So how did we get here, in this horrible place? How did this happen? Well, I'd say that it is a feature (not a bug) of the unregulated free market system. The tendency is for capital to cut its expenses ruthlessly -- on things like labor. As a result, wages (the real engine of the economy) go stagnant and the middle class borrows more and more just to stay ahead. After a while, the amount of debt far outweighs the amount of real assets that the middle class holds. Then credit dries up -- and the bubble pops. Everyone loses.

Cutting taxes again won't solve the problem. What solves the problem is building an economy where people have jobs that produce real, tangible benefits -- infrastructure improvements, energy independence, higher education and universal health care.

That's why I voted for Barack Obama: because he gets it.

Deep (Scary) Thought

Prior to "Still" President George W. Bush, the general consensus pretty much ascribed the "Worst President Ever" label to Lincoln's predecessor Buchanan and/or the author of The Great Depression, Herbert Hoover.

What could seal the deal for undisputed champ?  Well we already know that President Obama will have the biggest economic clusterfuck facing an incoming POTUS since FDR was sworn in.  Most would agree that The Great Depression was no small contributor to the rise of National Socialism and WWII . . .

Our Civil War was all but inevitable when Lincoln took over . . .

You know where I'm going with this.  In our globally intertwined military/industrial/media culture, will it take a Global Civil War to crown "W" chief of the absolute worst, or can we just give him a Mulligan?

If You Were Wondering What's Next

After Washington is conquered by the DFH, whatever will a liberal blogger do with his time?

• Pack for that long over-due vision quest?
• Invest the remains of his stock portfolio in hand-cut flowers and airport literature?
• Get back to the gym to eliminate eight years of flabby un-Americanism?

Or BLOG, BABY, BLOG!!

'Joe the Plumber' Mulling Run for Congress

Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. "Joe the Plumber," said Friday he may consider running for Congress in 2010, challenging longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) in the Toledo-area district.

"I'll tell you what, we'd definitely be in one heck of a fight," Wurzelbacher said during an appearance on the Laura Ingraham show Friday, "but, you know, I'd be up for it."

"There is a movement afoot to draft you to run for Congress," Ingraham said. "Joe, let me tell you something: you decide to run for Congress, and I'll help you with your PR, I'll help you do your ads, I mean, I'll volunteer to help you."

Ingraham's producer, Brian Feldman, said that during the break after the segment, Wurzelbacher told Ingraham that his statements today represent the first time he has acknowledged considering a bid for Congress in public.

Wurzelbacher said he did agree with Kaptur's vote against the bailout, and touted his support for a flat tax on income.

BRING IT THE FUCK ON, DUDE.

So what do we have here? A netroots darling, a veteran of the progressive cause versus a guy who's name ain't Joe, isn't licensed to be a plumber, doesn't pay his taxes, thinks it's socialism for his non-existent tax increases to go to folks who didn't work as hard as he did -- unless he's the guy collecting welfare.

He's perfect. Just as phony as McCain and clueless as Palin. A made-to-order wingnut media darling. And I'm just the guy to crush his dreams.

Come on Joe, give me a reason to blog!

;-)

Vote McCain . . . Or He Might Lose

SRSLY?  Is that all they got now?  After picking Palin merely because she looked the part . . .

"The way you pick a vice president is, you get a frame of Time magazine, and you put the pictures of the people in that frame. You look at who fits that frame best — that’s your V. P."

And now clinging to the idea that the economy failed McCain, when the truth was that McCain failed to lead on the economy . . .

America was in crisis. Perhaps with the Bush theory in mind, Steve Schmidt had advised McCain to “go in all the way” on the financial crisis so as to reveal his candidate’s true character. But given a chance to show what kind of president he might be, McCain came off more like a stymied bystander than a leader who could make a difference.

Am I right that all they really have left is to say if you don't vote for the Republicans, the Democrats will win?

Well, No Duh!

I've been pretty disgusted with GOP induced gridlock since Gingrich, GOP excesses under Tom Delay and Bush's Rubber-Stamp legislature, and GOP filibusters giving a nominally Democratic controlled Congress a bad name.  I absolutely welcome our new Robot Overlords from the Blue States. 

Anyone worried about liberal excesses is simply fear-mongering and desperate.  This is the Democratic Party, not the vanguard of some socialist revolution.  A herd of cats has more synchronicity.  Is there any doubt that most of the new Democrats from Red Districts and States will merely add to the power of the real power-brokers in Congress, the Blue-Dogs? 

Yes, theoretically a united Democratic Party could, and should bring sweeping changes to this nation.  That's a good thing, right.  The word "Change" is on all the campaign literature from both parties.  So . . . Bonus!  After months of the "me too" tactic of adopting Barack Obama's central theme (by McCain and by Clinton before him), why should anyone be fearful of a lot of change in a short amount of time?  You don't think Hillary and the Republicans were being disingenuous, do you? 

Other than driving the GOP's bankrupt ideology to the Hospice, Democrats aren't all that united on much.

The Blue-Dogs already proved they could side with like-minded conservatives in the other party to pass just about anything they want -- and despite the hype, Obama is more practical than he is ideological in these things.  (see e.g. FISA)  The check, the balance you're looking for is the reasonableness of the majority of law-makers we send to Washington now that so many of the whack-jobs have been outed and will soon be gone.  (And Jack Murtha, that means you too.  Sorry big guy.) 

We Americans have more in common than those things that have been exploited to divide us.  Those wedge issues the Atwaters/Roves/Schmidts have used to gain power are contributing directly to our demise as a nation.  It has to end or it will be the end of us all.

We've got serious problems to solve in this country.  Now is not the time to indulge in the silly one-up-manship and gridlock that has defined Washington for the last 20 years.  Enough is enough. 

Ohio Poll And Job Numbers

Obama - Plus 11.5% ?  Plus 14% ?!?  Holy Crap!
Jobs - Minus 7.2% ?  Minus 434,000 ?!? Oh Shit!!

Something stinks with all those numbers.  Not that I don't believe them.  I'm no expert on statistical analysis or unemployment calculations.  It's just that numbers like this usually only exist in some alternate universe.  A figment of a bizzaro imagination.

Look folks, whatever the "experts" say, we've been in a recession for a year now, and we've got a year or two more of the same crap facing us.  Most recessions last no more than 8 months and aren't even declared until they're over.  This one's much harder to obscure.  We aren't so much running with the "hot chick" as running from the ugly one when it comes to our choice in new leadership. 

Ohio, perennial grand prize in the presidential sweepstakes, is right in the middle of our economic woes.

Yesterday, Chrysler eliminated it's entire second shift in Toledo's Jeep plant, over 825 jobs half a mile from my blue-collar bar that caters to these guys and the factory workers and tool-n-die workers, drivers, broom pushers and upholstery makers who supply the place, adding to a steep rise in unemployment claims which were already in recession territory.

When you consider the employer-matched taxes, health insurance premiums, unemployment and workers compensation payments each Jeep employee represents on top of their salary, a modest estimate of the economic effect of losing those jobs is about $90,000 per worker, or almost $75 Million of Toledo's economy was just wiped out.  The mayor said in no uncertain terms the Jeep layoffs, "reflect the disastrous economic policies of the Bush presidency." 

Mayor Finkbeiner announced a three-day shut down of all nonessential government business to try to claw the city out of debt knowing it's tax revenue will be another million or two less than projected with the lay offs.  It was bad before, it never felt like we recovered from the first "W" recession.  Now I feel like I'm at ground zero of the collapse of the real economy.  I remember the feeling, having lived outside of Youngstown, Ohio when the steel mills closed in the late seventies.  (Hey, it's not my fault, dammit.)

Of course, the way it works is exactly the opposite of what the government should be doing.  When all those city-workers lose three days pay, they'll buy less which hurts all the area's small businesses.  We sell a fair amount of Budweiser to guys off work from the city garage down the street -- who will be buying just that much less.  A municipality that cannot run a defict really has no choice, I know.  But knowing that doesn't mitigate the suck.  This will be exactly the opposite of economic stimulation.

But we're a blue county here in Northern Ohio, solidly Democratic.  My Congress woman, Marcy Kaptur, is a netroots hero who voted against the Wall Street bailout, both times, because once again Washington's fix was to help the millionaires and not people who work for a living.  The fact that bad
things are happening in the Rust Belt doesn't phase GOP election strategy.  They only care about the voters who live closer to the River than the Lake.

Nevertheless, the overall Ohio unemployment data has got to effect John McCain's chances here.  There are five Ohio counties that have over 10% unemployment right now -- all but one are outside of the Lake Erie watershed and each voted strongly for Bush in 2004. (Tables and maps available here.)  Huron in Northern Ohio, Van Wert in the West, Pike, Meigs and Morgan counties in the South and Southeast have the worst jobs outlook in the state right now.  Believe it or not, the numbers say this won't matter as much as you might think, not everywhere.

It could be enough to push Obama over the edge, but some red counties in Ohio are just plain stubborn.  Here's why.  Back in September of 2004, Pike county, Bush country, had a 9.5% unemployment rate.  Meigs was at 9.6% and Morgan boasted 9.8% out of work.  None are really that much worse now at 10%+, a point or so higher in these Appalachian foothills.  Despite tumbling over they abyss they were only looking into four years ago, they'll vote for McCain.  Watch. 

I think the economy will, however, make a difference in a northern county like Huron whose unemployment was high enough at 6.7% in '04, or in western Van Wert which only saw a 4.9% jobless rate when they voted for Bush.  These folks don't know what hit 'em now that they're in double digits.

Of course outside of Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati there are few "red" zones with large population centers in Ohio, and the vote counts in the urban centers were very close last time.  Van Wert county, on the other hand, is one of the least populous, so it's nothing to get excited about if it switches to the Democrat on the heels of doubling it's unemployment rate (even though it would be noteworthy and very welcome if it went blue).  

Huron county is another story, half-way between the Cleveland and Toledo metro areas it would be a healthy addition to the blue column -- but they don't have an especially high concentration of voters there either, but it's even more welcome to join the reality based community. 

As for the big red counties, the Dayton metro area (Montgomery county) is witnessing a 7.8% unemployment rate, 1.3% more than in October of 2004.  That translates into 17,700 people on the streets then compared to 21,300 now.  To give you an idea how that compares to Van Wert county, there were only 14,827 total voters there in 2004, less voters in Van Wert than job hunters in Dayton. 

Huron county turned out 25,557 voters in 2004.  Today there are more people scouring the help wanted ads in Hamilton county (Cincinnati) which had 23,500 unemployed in October of 2004 (5.6%) and just barely went for Bush.  Now there are nearly 3,000 more people looking for work there (6.3%) who are not only bitter (whether they cling to guns and religion or not), but who have family and friends depending on them who are equally pissed off at the way the Republicans have mis-managed everything economic.  Just these slight downturns in the Southwestern Ohio metro centers may have a much more dramatic effect on voter sentiment than more rural areas facing unemployment rates they haven't seen in generations.

Columbus, much like Washington DC, really doesn't have a workforce that makes anything -- except trouble and paperwork for the rest of the state.  While higher than four years ago, they still are around the national average when it comes to joblessness.  It's more about the availability of enough working voting booths there than working people.  If everybody in Franklin county who wants to vote, gets to vote -- they go blue.

Loyal GOPers, bless their deluded souls, have a built-in excuse for losing this one.  Somehow, "mysteriously," the economy tanked.  But this is an economy of their own making.  I will never forget Bush's second Treasury Secretary Snow, a Toledo native for Pete's sake saying outsourcing was a good thing back in '04, and that new jobs were coming to Ohio.  What bull!

The sad part, for the Republicans anyway, is that despite all of this John McCain actually had a chance to win on this issue.  He had a real shot at owning the economic argument.  No really, he did. 

He could have parlayed that campaign "suspension" gimmick into a true maverick moment, rejected the bailout on principle alone as passionately as did Marcy Kaptur, but for entirely different reasons -- earmarks -- and spent the last two months lambasting Bush for his financial fecklessness without fear of damaging his support with the conservative base since there is no definition of conservatiism that can be applied to Bush's fiscal policies.

What a douche.

The Obamenon

Are you buying these polls?  I mean, are you really buying these polls?


Click to enlarge.

If these numbers stay this big, and dual polls with Ohio in double digits for Obama is huge, it will redefine the meaning of the word mandate.  But to some on the right, those that wholly agreed with Dick Cheney who called a 1% popular vote win in aught-four coupled with an unnatural infatuation with the Cult of Bush a "mandate," they can only visualize an Obama win in terms "dating the man" instead of voting for him. 

Fox News' overnight show Red Eye is hosted by one such deep thinker, Greg Gutfeld, a man who never misses an opportunity to recite a Maureen Dowd column out loud:

Seriously, the man isn’t a presidential candidate, he’s a really hot chick. You know what I mean, right?

You know how when a friend starts dating some girl, let’s say a stripper with top of the line implants, he overlooks everything else. She could be spreading Chlamydia like a Jehovah’s Witness unloading a case of Watchtower pamphlets, and it won’t matter.

Blinded by beauty, he lets her get away with everything, until your buddy is left broken and broke, riddled with disease, sleeping in your garage and convinced a mob boyfriend wants him dead.

I’m not saying Barack is that harmful. I’m just saying that when it comes to the media, he possesses a force field that every hot chick has and no matter what you say or do to convince obsessed fans otherwise, it’s pointless.

Face it: If you found out that your new girlfriend, who happened to be Megan Fox, worked with ACORN, hung around with Bill Ayers and used to do coke back in college, would you care?

Of course you wouldn’t! It’s Megan Fox!

Congratulations. You’re now The New York Times.

And if you disagree with me, then you sir are worse than Hitler. (Hat Tip: Gawker)

Zeig Heil Greg.  And if you found out your "girlfriend" was a pampered coke-head who went AWOL during Vietnam, bankrupted every company he ran and had financial ties to the Bin Laden family, as long as he promised you more judges promising to abolish Roe v. Wade you and your ilk wouldn't care either.  The media swings on whatever tire is available.  But the Kool Aide drinkers and propagandists on the right are a lot less discerning as long as their pet issue is covered.

Obama: A Bigger Maverick than McCain (or Palin)

[cross posted at E Pluribus Unum]

Republicans loooooooooooove to ask "Who is Obama, really?" Here's the answer: He's the guy who (for the last two years of intense media scrutiny) expertly ran a $400 million campaign that knocked Bill and Hillary Clinton off their pedestals and secured the nomination of his party -- and more importantly, pulled the party together when it was all over. McCain himself should have the balls to acknowledge that (by his own definition) that makes Obama the biggest maverick of all time -- and someone who has shown that he can "reach across the aisle" (see "Powell, Colin" below). Obama is a force to be reckoned with and hardly a mystery man -- unless you've been hiding in the garage since 2006.

The truth is that the electorate should be asking, instead, "who is Sarah Palin, really?" She showed up 7 weeks ago, having been touted as the person who "stood up" to the sitting governor of her own party (and I defy you to even name him) and somehow this qualifies her to be president. Why? Because she's a maverick and a reformer. But really -- have you listened to her talk? We just got done having a president that talked like Palin. What did we learn? That words mean something and you can judge a person by the words they use. We don't need another president like that.

McCain now says "I am not George Bush." He might as well add "Sarah Palin is."

For the life of me I cannot understand why McCain picked Palin -- the maverick -- when it's obvious that he gave away his biggest argument against Obama in so doing. Think about it: compare Obama's last two years of public life with Palin's last two years and tell me, honestly: who is better prepared to be president? Then when you've got your answer ask yourself this question: WTF was McCain thinking?

Fact is, Palin, in all her mavericky glory, hasn't worn well in the 7 weeks she's been on the national stage. The sad truth is that the more the electorate finds out about Palin, the less they are impressed with her qualifications and (more dangersously to the point) the less they like her. She's tanking McCain's campaign and (judging by the steam coming out of McCain's ears during their joint interview last night) McCain knows it. Colin Powell (and how's THAT for reaching across the aisle?) isn't the only Republican who is shocked that McCain thinks she's qualified.

The good news for McCain? The electorate's #1 negative perception about him is no longer that he'll be like Bush. So, yes, they believe McCain is a maverick. The bad news? The electorate's #1 negative perception about John McCain is Sarah Palin.

Maybe She Should Have Kept That E-Bay Plane

Operative paragraph of a rare incidence of the AP doing it's job (via):

In all, Palin has charged the state $21,012 for her three daughters' 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights since she took office in December 2006. In some other cases, she has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls.

No doubt further inquiry will reveal that all of the spots the Palin family visited were exclusively within "Real, Pro-America" parts of the country.  Any suggestions that this behavior might consitute theft in office or tax evasion will be met with the usual IOKIYAR "Tut-Tutting" from the Village media.

Also, now transferred from the elitist Anti-American snobbish parts of the country and forevermore designated "Real Stores" as acceptable to "Real Americans" as Walmart, K-Mart, Sears and Sam's Club:

Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74
Neiman Marcus - $75,062.63

Other stores that are now permissible for "Real Americans" to patriotically do their part to help bail out the economy by shopping till they drop are:

Barney's - $789.72
Bloomingdales - $5,102.71
Atelier - $4,902.45
Macy's - $4,396.94

Not only might this list be expanded, it also may be the Rosetta Stone linking the Grand Unified Theory of Stunning Wardrobes for Minnesota Republicans.

Always Were, Always Will Be

George Will, Rush Limbaugh, Pat Buchanan, are bigots.  Deep down inside, or bubbling unbid to the open in the face of having nothing else in their bag of tricks, they believe that America means conservativism and conservatism stands for the preservation of an Ameirca perpetually dominated by wealthy white males.

Attacking the messenger is predictable fodder this close to an election, but when the messenger is someone as distinguished and respected as Colin Powell, especially in Republican circles, there's not a who heckuvalot of ammunition available, not when he says something like this, what Juan Cole calls his "finest moment."

I'm also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, "Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim." Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian. He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America. Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, "He's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists." This is not the way we should be doing it in America.

I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son's grave. And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his awards--Purple Heart, Bronze Star--showed that he died in Iraq, gave his date of birth, date of death. He was 20 years old. And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn't have a Christian cross, it didn't have the Star of David, it had crescent and a star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he was an American. He was born in New Jersey. He was 14 years old at the time of 9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life. Now, we have got to stop polarizing ourself in this way. And John McCain is as nondiscriminatory as anyone I know. But I'm troubled about the fact that, within the party, we have these kinds of expressions.'

People, it's common knowledge that the GOP is a sanctuary for racists.  Argue if you must, but it is merely a side-effect of political correctness that we never discuss in polite company just why they don't attract minorities or better educated constituencies, and are left with bed-wetting nutbags. 

Birds of a feather . . .

But please understand, I by no means believe that all Republicans are racists.  That's absurd.  But as Powell said, racisim is tolerated within the ranks of the GOP.  "It is permitted to be said . . ." That racism is allowed, even exploited by the Republican Party -- and it is, has been for a long time -- diminishes the contributions and accomplishments of General Powell and people like Condoleeza Rice and even Alberto Gonzales, folks who ostensibly rose to their positions on merit and neither despite or because of their minority status.  At least that's what we were led to believe by the guy who hired them (even if he didn't fool anyone).  That's the way it should have been, anyway, and I'm pretty sure Powell earned his stripes even if the others got a White House parking space for being Loyal Bushies. 

Reacting to Powell's endorsement as simply the token black guy in the Bush Administration going with his own kind is beyond insulting in light of the scathing indictment against McCain's performance Powell offered.  Those who still gather under the GOP banner must recognize they have a huge problem on their hands.  When they lose Powell they've got their work cut out for them.

Kevin Madden, a GOP veteran who was the press secretary for Mitt Romney's presidential bid, said that "Colin Powell was a proxy for our party's ability to persuade Democrats and independents to join a center-right coalition of ideas built around economic conservatism and a strong national defense. The endorsement is emblematic of the challenges we face as a party when it comes to winning back these voters."

The problem with the Wills, Buchanans and Limbaughs of the world is that they refuse to listen to what Powell said.

"This Powell endorsement is the nail in the coffin," said one Republican official, speaking anonymously to offer candid thoughts about the party's nominee. "Not just because of him, but the indictment he laid out of the McCain campaign."

Personally, I don't believe the GOP is salvageable.  Contemporaneously with the fall of Reaganomics as a legitimate governing theory, so too has the Reagan coalition been irreparably fractured. 

They will reform, of that I've no doubt.  And they probably will lurch further to the right before they again learn to compromise (or a plausible portrayal of reasonability) and find the center again.  But the party that will emerge (or the one that takes it's place) will not be something easily recognizable for those of us steeped in the tradition of opposing Nixon, Reagan and the Bushes.  What's frightening is that it might be transformed into something someone like me doesn't instinctively reject out of hand.  But that might be a good thing.

But they'd have to get rid of the bigot wing of the party for me to be fooled. 

As long as people like Limbaugh and his apostles Hannity, O'Reilly and the Michaels Reagan and Savage pollute the airwaves, answerable to no one and accountable only to their bankers, until such personifications of hate and the perpetuation of divisivness and bigotry they represent are publically rebuked by a political right who otherwise relies on their propaganda, we really won't see the end of this stuff.

Shorter Colin Powell

Something like this ...

McCain is a fine American who is running an un-American campaign. He is a tolerant man who tolerated un-American bigotry and divisiveness from his subordinates and allies within the Republican Party.

Colin Powell insists he is an American first, not an African-American, or a Veteran-American, or a Republican-American, or a Politician-American -- but an American, and he believes that Barack Obama will make a great American President.

Good stuff.  Especially good to hear in those less patriotic, less pro-American areas of America that have been voting with their wallets in anticipation of voting for real who are about sick to death of the dog whistles and personal attacks coming from the right.

Out Of Many, One

MCCAIN: MIDDLE-CLASS TAX CUT IS 'WELFARE' -- "In other words, Barack Obama's tax plan would convert the IRS into a giant welfare agency, redistributing massive amounts of wealth at the direction of politicians in Washington."

Now don’t get me wrong. The people I meet — in small towns and big cities, in diners and office parks — they don’t expect government to solve all their problems. They know they have to work hard to get ahead — and they want to.

Go into the collar counties around Chicago, and people will tell you they don’t want their tax money wasted, by a welfare agency or by the Pentagon. [...]

Voinovich: Obama a 'socialist' -- "He is left of Teddy Kennedy," Voinovich said. "With all due respect, the man is a socialist."

Go into any inner city neighborhood, and folks will tell you that government alone can’t teach our kids to learn — they know that parents have to teach, that children can’t achieve unless we raise their expectations and turn off the television sets and eradicate the slander that says a black youth with a book is acting white. They know those things.

People don’t expect government to solve all their problems. But they sense, deep in their bones, that with just a slight change in priorities, we can make sure that every child in America has a decent shot at life, and that the doors of opportunity remain open to all. [...]

Palin Touts the ‘Pro-America’ Areas of the Country -- "We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America, being here with all of you hard working very patriotic, um, very, um, pro-America areas of this great nation."

Now even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters, the negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes.

Well, I say to them tonight, there is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America. There is not a Black America and a White America and Latino America and Asian America — there’s the United States of America. [...]

Bachmann Calls Obama and Liberals Anti-American -- "I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out, are they pro-America or anti-America?" (HT C&L)

The pundits, the pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats. But I’ve got news for them, too:

We worship an awesome God in the Blue States, and we don’t like federal agents poking around in our libraries in the Red States.

We coach Little League in the Blue States and yes, we’ve got some gay friends in the Red States.

There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and there are patriots who supported the war in Iraq. [...]

Pfotenhauer Insults Virginians: ‘Real Virginia’ Is Only Where McCain Is Winning -- "But the rest of the state — real Virginia if you will — I think will be very responsive to Senator McCain’s message."

We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America. In the end, that’s what this election is about. Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or do we participate in a politics of hope? [...]

To Avoid Being 'Depressed,' Palin Skimps on Campaign News -- "At those times on the campaign trail when sometimes it's easy to get a little bit discouraged, when, you know, when you happen to turn on the news when your campaign staffers will let you turn on the news."

I’m not talking about blind optimism here - the almost willful ignorance that thinks unemployment will go away if we just don’t think about it, or the health care crisis will solve itself if we just ignore it. That’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about something more substantial.

It’s the hope of slaves sitting around a fire singing freedom songs. The hope of immigrants setting out for distant shores.

The hope of a young naval lieutenant bravely patrolling the Mekong Delta.

The hope of a millworker’s son who dares to defy the odds.

The hope of a skinny kid with a funny name who believes that America has a place for him, too.

Hope in the face of difficulty. Hope in the face of uncertainty. The audacity of hope! [...]

McCain suggests Obama tax policies are socialist -- "At least in Europe, the Socialist leaders who so admire my opponent are upfront about their objectives."

In the end, that is God’s greatest gift to us, the bedrock of this nation. A belief in things not seen. A belief that there are better days ahead.

I believe that we can give our middle class relief and provide working families with a road to opportunity.

I believe we can provide jobs to the jobless, homes to the homeless, and reclaim young people in cities across America from violence and despair.

I believe that we have a righteous wind at our backs and that as we stand on the crossroads of history, we can make the right choices, and meet the challenges that face us.

America! Tonight, if you feel the same energy that I do, if you feel the same urgency that I do, if you feel the same passion I do, if you feel the same hopefulness that I do — if we do what we must do, then I have no doubts that all across the country, from Florida to Oregon, from Washington to Maine, the people will rise up in November, [. . .] and this country will reclaim its promise, and out of this long political darkness a brighter day will come.

OUT OF MANY, ONE by Barack Obama

Keynote Speech
Democratic National Convention in Boston, Mass.
July 27, 2004

As much as I want to tap dance on the grave of the "conservative movement," it's not about picking the winning side and beating the losing side. It's about not dividing us into "sides" at all.

Frankly, I don't know if I'm mature enough to pull it off, but I sure am all in favor of electing a President who is, who will try, who will move us in the right direction instead of purposely exploiting those things that divide us and looking for more things to spread fear and unease with something or someone "different."

It has to end someday, right? The Atwater/Rove/Schmidt reliance on "wedge issue" stratagems destroy what we are and who we want to be. The only way to end it, and it won't end anytime soon, is to defeat it again and again until it no longer is a viable option in American politics.

The Moment You Waited All Day For

The (late) Friday Docu-Dump.

Cindy McCain Releases Tax Returns

You just don't know how much those of us assigned to the Friday blog roundup circuit just love this stuff. After a full day sorting through all the end of the week round-up posts, the linky news you should know but aren't worth an entire post about stuff, those damn cats you see every damn Friday, and the inevitability that you will be Rick-Rolled again and again; you just know there's gold to be mined (and great stuff on the SciFi channel to be missed) when a steaming pile of official-looking, number-filled, mind-numbingly dull reams of paper are pushed out to the public late on a Friday.

Welcome to my world.

Only the most stallwart souls would venture beyond this disclaimer ...

There is no new information on this tax return beyond the actual amount of Mrs. McCain’s income and taxes paid, because all other details of her personal and family sources of income and assets are already public.

Hmm... make my day. Caution of course is in order before clicking the link. It feeds you directly into the lair of the enemy, John McCain's website.

http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainfinancial/... which proivdes a pdf link to Cindy's returns and a summary of John's taxes which were previously disclosed.

SUMMARY OF TAX RETURNS

Taxes Paid:

For 2006, Senator McCain paid $72,771 in federal income, alternative minimum, and self-employment taxes (LINES 57 and 58) on taxable income of $215,304 (LINE 43), which is a 33.8% tax rate. View

For 2007, Senator McCain paid $84,460 in federal income, alternative minimum, and self-employment taxes (LINES 57 and 58) on taxable income of $258,800 (LINE 43), which is a 32.6% tax rate. View

Ya wanna know what's funny? Since Obama would only raise taxes on those making over a quarter million a year, and only tax the excess of that at a marginally higher rate -- if Senator McCain makes this year what he made last year, $258,800, he'd only pay extra on the $8,800 above $250,000. McCain want's that taxed at 35% and Obama bumps it up to 39.5% That makes the "wealth" Obama wants McCain to share equal to only $404.80.

That's right people. Barack Obama is a socialist because he wants McCain to chip in an extra Four Hundred Bucks a year. Don't believe me? Do the math yourself after looking at the non-partisan Tax Policy Center's analysis.

The impact of the tax code on economic activity under each candidate’s policies would differ in several important ways. Under Senator McCain’s proposed policies, the top marginal rates (35 percent on individual income and 25 percent on corporate income) would be significantly lower than under Senator Obama’s plan (39.6 and 35 percent, respectively). McCain’s reduced individual and corporate rates could improve economic efficiency and increase domestic investment, but the larger future deficits would reduce and might completely negate any positive effect. In contrast, Senator Obama’s proposed new tax credits could encourage desirable behavior, particularly if the childless EITC and payroll tax rebate encourage additional labor supply among childless low-income individuals. However, he would also direct new subsidies at an already favored group—seniors —and an already favored activity—homeownership—which could probably be better directed elsewhere.

I'm again amazed how we can polarize the nation over a lousy 4.6% raise on someone who gives away a hundred grand to charity anyway -- his and Cindy's private foundation of course. This shit is unbelievable sometimes.

Joe John The Plumber Senator's Taxes

• McCain Tax rate: 35% on the excess John makes over $250,000 equals $3,080 on $8,800.
• Obama Tax Rate: 39.6% on the excess John makes over $250,000 equals $3,476 on $8,800.
• Difference between plans? You do the math.

Not only is John McCain a creepy old coot with delusions of rationality, he's a cheap old fart too.

If I may be so presumptuous, allow me to be so bold as to quote myself:

Since Ronald Reagan took his last nap in the White House Situation Room, we've been fighting over a marginal difference in tax rates of about 12 points, give or take. That's all. Twelve lousy percentage point are the cause of all the demonization and hyperbole that warrant the GOP calling Democrats commies and us self-righteous liberals justify painting conservatives as heartless fascists. (Okay, there are other reasons they are a bunch of hate-mongering thieves, but let's stick to taxes for now.)

Back in Eisenhower's day the top bracket paid 90 frickin per-cent! Now the top pays what? 35%? Less since that rate doesn't apply to the first $175,000 you earn.

Hey Joe, you not-really-a-plumber. Kiss my ass.

Oh, and how much did Cindy McCain make last year? Who knows. Who really cares anyway. She's as rich as sin and never broke a nail doing dishes let alone working an honest day in her life -- yet pockets over $4 Million a year, mostly in rent and dividends. Hail to the Thief -- Obama, the modern day Robin Hood who'll squeeze another couple of sawbucks out of her skinny ass and that ne'er do well husband of hers when he takes over.

There's So Much Wrong With Palin

So very, very much.

In the course of just one speech, the mind-boggglingly stupid piled on top of the just plain dumb is staggering.

Not only is is unable to name any newspapers or magazines that she reads, she doesn't watch the news -- rather, she's not allowed to.

At those times on the campaign trail when sometimes it's easy to get a
little bit discouraged, when, you know, when you happen to turn on the
news when your campaign staffers will let you turn on the news," she
said, prompting laughter from the group. "Usually they're like 'Oh my
gosh, don't watch. You're going to, you know, you're going to get
depressed.'"

Perfect symmetry.  Low information voter, meet your low information candidate. But talk about your base-play.  Her rallies really are more like tent revival meetings than political discourse.  Check this out.

"But it's at events like these and our rallies that we are so
energized and inspired and we know that we are not alone. We feel your
strength and we feel the power of prayer, so many of you tell us that
you are praying for us and praying for our country and that's why we so
appreciate you being here."

Giving credit to a higher power for the day's poll ratings, the
Alaska governor told the roughly 500-person audience that things might
be changing. "We even saw today, thank the Lord," she said, looking
upwards and raising her fist, "We saw some movement."

So, when she loses in historic fashion, will she blame her god, or will she hear a booming voice in her head that says, "Sister Sarah, something about you just chaps my ass."  Her ability to bring the blather is remarkable.  She claims she begged her speech writers not to make her talk about Joe the Plumber -- as if she isn't a capable adult fully able to simple decide not to bring the guy up.

"And I, I begged our speech writers, 'Don't make me say 'Joe the
Plumber,' please, in any speeches.' And I was asked, 'Just one time,
just at this fund raiser,'" she recounted.

And then she proceeded to parrot exactly what they had written for her to say, going on and on about guess who, Joe.  (Can she call him Joe, too?)

A final and exceedingly bad form piece of work was how she noted "that she loved to visit the "pro-America" areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one."  The WaPost blog notes there was "No word on which states she views as unpatriotic."  Tone deafness, much?  Can't wait for this bitch to visit Brooklyn and bring that shit.

The ACORN Zombie Lies Will Not End

But their effect has been thwarted.

Chris Redfern, Ohio Democratic Chairman:

"The United States Supreme Court has wisely sided with Secretary Brunner in protecting hundreds of thousands of Ohio voters from being disenfranchised by the desperate tactics of the Ohio Republican Party.  This unanimous ruling by the United States Supreme Court allows Ohio to move about the business of ensuring a free, fair, open and honest election without the threat of widespread voter suppression by the GOP."

That should make life less of a living hell for our local Board of Election staffs.

Will Blog For Plumbing Work

The theory holds. The internetz IS a series of Tubez, that are now irretrievably clogged with the story of Joe the Not Really a Plumber from Toledo. Seriously, there's so much shit out there on Joe right now, you'd think we were vetting a vice Presidential candidate. Lord knows he took more questions, answered them more frankly if not honestly, and held more extensive press conferences than Sarah Palin.

Such is the tabloid nature of our political discourse. Biden was on Leno, McCain made up with Letterman, SNL went at it again. These venues will no doubt sway the few, the proud, the completely ignorant undecided voters that are left.

I caught McCain and Obama at the Al Smith Roast last night ... and I gotta tell ya....

I was wrong in my previous claim that John McCain reminded me of Don Rickles, even though they bear a striking resemblance. McCain came out in best tradition of Bob Hope. For you Gen Y'ers out there, ask your parents. Trust me that McCain really can clown it up and deliver a deadpan punchline as well as any professional comic.


Frankly, they got the billing wrong. Based on their sense of comic timing alone, Obama should have been McCain's warm-up act and not the other way around.

Not that Barack didn't bring the funny, he did. But as we saw in the last (thank god) debate, McCain is a natural clown. That's clearly evident in the completey unserious way he has managed his campaign and approached the issues of our time. Fortunately, judging by Obama's overwhelming lead in the polls, America is not looking for a Comic in Chief right now.

A couple of folks out there observed, I think Olliver Willis was one, that Barack Obama needed to reach a tipping point at one time or another, nudge past 50% in the polls or so where the people would find him acceptable, before we actually could elect an African-American president. That even the non-bigots out there wouldn't support him due to his race out of fear that he would lose because there simply were too many racists out there for him to overcome. Once he reached that electability threshold, the dam would burst, allowing those who otherwise liked everything else about him and had no personal reservations holding them back on account of Barack's background to support him knowing that the racial barrier had been minimalized enough for him to actually win this thing.

I think one part of Obama's surge in the polls can be attributed to that phenomenon, those Americans who regretted that Obama was not electable due to other American's bigotry now understand that we have overcome. There's still a lot of ugly out there, but not enough to keep a good man down. And of course, the economy helped Obama more than any model could overestimate, but he's kept that lead consistently.

Going back to the Al Smith performance, the dueling stand-up candidate/comics, it's just not Barack's thing. While McCain reminded me of funny-men who got their start in the Catskills back in the 40's or 50's, Obama was much smoother, cooler, but stilted. He's a great speaker, comfortable in front of a crowd -- which is no small thing folks. Public speaking is one of the most terrifying things there is, and Obama is a natural. But he's also something new when it comes to comparing him to the treasure of comedians we've known through the years.

There's been no dearth of black comics over the last 50 years, but Obama simply doesn't fit that mold. He's certainly no Redd Foxx or even a Bill Cosby, and he can't be compared to the likes of Richard Pryor or even the cleaner yet clownish Flip Wilson by any means (again kids, ask Mom). Nor did he remind me of a younger stable of comics of any race. He's no Chris Rock any more than he's a Darrel Hanna or Dane Cook. Maybe I'm being unfair, trying to compare black and white comics. Jim "Beyond the Pale" Gaffigan is whiter than white, and has no more in common with Obama than Lewis Black, who's not black and doesn't remind me of Obama either.

But it is a black thing, this idea that despite admiring all his talents, there is (or was) a segment of the people who might have held back their support for him fearing he couldn't break through because there sadly exist an undercurrent of irrational hate in the country that we just don't talk about in polite company. There's also another entertainment venue that has been a barrier to black entertainers until recently, movies.

So stand-up isn't Barack's thing. That's okay. He can deliver the lines, and they're funny, but his talents lie elsewhere. Just like he's no Jesse Jackson, he's no Martin Lawrence either. But Lawrence's co-star in Bad Boys, Will Smith, is not exactly known for his one-liners and stand-up routine. He's entertaining, often funny, but there's a little more gravitas to the Oscar nominated and golden Globe winning actor who's more in a league with Academy Award winners Denzel Washington (talk about your funny names) and Jamie Foxx than anyone on the stand-up circuit.

Small wonder that Obama himself said that Will Smith should play him in the movie of his life. Not a bad guy to be compared with when you consider Smith holds the record for the most consecutive films grossing over $100 million, ever.

Barack certainly can be funny, but there's more to him than that. He's a leader, a leading man if you will. Save for the occasional Sydney Pointier, there weren't too many black leading men who America would embrace 40 years ago. America is ready, more than ready as a culture to accept the skinny black guy with the funny name -- the Change Candidate. We've changed, and I for one cannot wait for the political change that's coming, reflecting the social change we've accomplished.

This is merely one step, but a big one. We've got a lot further to go and may never eliminate entirely the divisive nature race plays in our society, at least in my lifetime. But as a landmark along the way, "President Barack Obama" is a phrase we all should be proud of.

Alright, Enough Of This Stupid Narrative

Increasingly I'm seeing the center right and way-out wacky right punditocracy announce this sort of meme as they write John McCain's political obituary:

Previous to this economic free fall -- and after his transformative vice-presidential choice -- McCain was about tied in a race he should have been losing by a large margin. The public clearly had questions about Obama's leadership qualities. But the McCain campaign also proved itself capable of constructing an effective narrative: Obama as lightweight celebrity, McCain as maverick reformer. Until history intervened.

I fear this unchallenged pernicious revision of recent events will become the accepted conventional wisdom, the zombie lie of the Fall of 2008 as our children and great grandchildren study this epic period in the fall of the conservative movement.

Ever so briefly, on the heels of an outrageous and dangerous stunt when he vaulted the flaky and clearly unqualified Sarah Palin onto the national stage -- the McCain campaign achieved what is commonly known as a convention "bump" in the polls.

As the name implies, bumps are temporary and level off.  McCain's Palin bump succeeded in deflating Obama's convention bump before it could cycle out, principally because the Palin announcement came so quickly on the heels of Obama's fantastically well received speech in Denver's old Mile High Statium.  With the intensity of the Clintons drama peaking interest for the Villagers (Will they really mean it when they endorse Barack?) and the novelty and natural curiosity about the Thrilla from Wasilla, fence sitters of either stripe began to weigh in as expected. 

But McCain's peak poll numbers never surpassed Obama's pre-Convention levels.  If you look at Pollster.com's trend lines, McCain only crossed above Obama for a couple of days and then headed south.   In other words, at McCain's most artificially inflated best, all he could accomplish was to break even with Obama's "normal" poll results before his Convention ballooned his numbers.  I don't call that a tie.  The few days that McCain polled above Obama as the Republican Convention ended were more of a statisical abberation than any significant change in voter sentiment. 

The highest McCain ever reached was 50% - 51% average for the first week of September and then settled back down as we got to know just how awful Palin is, confirming the suspicion that her pick was just another gimmick, another in a long line of stunts where McCain pulled a tactically unexpected move that neither worked out for the greater strategy of the campaign or the best interests of the nation.

By the time the economy hit crisis proportions, Obama had climbed back to his highest pre-convention numbers and McCain was moving straight down, a trend that has reinforced itself dramatically as the headlines were dominated by the Wall Street bailout.

But to be clear, McCain's "bump" never reached Obama's highs, and Obama's post convention dip never went below where he had consistently been all summer.

Real Clear Politics' gathering of the polls of this critical "bounce" period for both campaigns, the period from the end of the Democratic Convention to the end of the Republican's tells the story.  RCP had Obama +8, +9, +1, +7, +6, +8 and a tie on the eve of the Republican Convention (from 8/25 - 9/5).  Only one post-RNC poll (9/5 - 9-11) put McCain higher than any lead Obama obtained (USA Today/Gallup: McCain +10 on 9/5-9/7) while those others that gave McCain a bounce had him only at +5, +3, +5, and +3.  Three other polls the week after the RNC showed that McCain had eaten into Obama's numbers, but either merely tied him or were just short, Obama +1.

Lehman Brothers went bankrupt on September 15th and the mega insurance company AIG was bailed out on September 16th.  By this time, Obama was back at the tie, or +2, +5 range, and McCain again back to his underdog status.

Was McCain still in "striking distance?" Sure.  But spare me the McCain as a victim of circumstances canard.  He was losing, as he had been right along.  What the financial crisis did was crystalize a close but losing effort into a lost cause.  The fact that this will be a rout I'll chalk up to Wall Street, but I'll never buy in to the idea that history was somehow unfair to Johnny "Ace" McSame, stealing his moment in the sun. 

McCain needed much more than a gimmicky side-kick as his game changer.  What we'll never know is if he would have dived into the muck of character assassination if he hadn't gotten as desparate as he is now.  Maybe it would have worked in a world that hadn't imploded as we were all glued to CNBC's stock ticker, but then again, would he have gone there without it? 

Judging by the blowback, it probably wouldn't have worked anyway.

Atari's Electoral Cartogram Generator

I've been looking around at other ways to visualize the election (again), and came across a BBC US Election Map Generator they use to describe our freakish electoral college system to a nation that still picks their sovereign head of state in a much more refined and old fashioned way, via funeral and coronation.

The map does what my cartograms attempt, which is show the relative power of various states in the electoral college. They do it by animating the elevation of a state (very cool on the site in some kind of flash animation I can't seem to replicate or embed). They do it in stages, the last one I reproduced here with the final results shaded the appropriate red and blue according to the latest results at 538.com.

I got an email asking me what type of programing code I use for my disconnected electoral map which sacrifices contiguous states in favor of accurately projecting their real shape and sadly had to explain that it was really just the computer equivalent of cutting out the states like a child would with scissors, borrowing dad's copy machine to blow them up or shrink them according to their electoral votes, and breaking out the Crayolas.

Well, with Obama scoring a stupid lead in the CBS/New York Times poll (plus 14 really is just running up the score folks, that's two touchdowns and we usually score political matchups like hockey); I figured it was time to show just what vintage 1979 video game technology could do with my version of an election map. To my suprise, it stood everything on end and the blue representing Barack Obama's immenent landslide swallowed everything in sight.

So here it is, the state of the 2008 election according to Atari:

Enjoy!

McCain Pals Around With Sadaam Lobbyists

Hey, can we play the guilt by association game too?  How 'bout this little item?

BOOM!

William Timmons, the Washington lobbyist who John McCain has named to
head his presidential transition team, aided an influence effort on
behalf of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to ease international sanctions
against his regime.

Live by character assassination, die by character assassination.

Note that this isn't some guy who did bad things 40 years ago, or sat on some GOP funded charity board with the candidate.  Timmons works for McCain, Right. Fricking. Now!

Let's go clog up the intertubez with this sludge for a while.  The smears directed Obama's way are starting to smell stale.

Fred Barnes Nightmare

What scares the Bejeebus outta Fox Pundit and Weekly Standard's paid monkey-typist Fred Barnes?  Here's the short list of his Worst Case Scenario when Barack Obama sweeps into the D.C. Village with his team of terrorist congress critters:

1. They make it easier to join a union.
2. Conservative Hate-Speech Radio might have competition from Love Speaking Liberals.
3. Robert Bork's dream of someday getting on the Supreme Court will be dashed for all time.
4. All America's children will get health care.
5. The tax-free-ride for millionaires might end.

I know Barnes personifies a ridiculous caricature of a right-wing demagogue, but did you notice what's missing, what doesn't seem to matter after 6 years of branding Democrats as unpatriotic cowards?

OBAMA WILL END THE GODDAMN IRAQ QUAGMIRE.

See, this simply amplifies the maxim that conservative's only fight terrorists when convenient in their perpetual struggle to exploit the poor and middle class as they wage war on liberals.

St. Krugman and the Dragons

Knowing that Ad Nags says it ain't over 'til it's over, I have to agree with Kevin.  The Presidential race is over. 

Even in an Era of Peak Wingnuttia, there will still be pockets of stupidity to be drilled, baby, drilled -- just coming at a higher cost and notable more for their extreme rarity than their pernicious influence.  It's not if Obama will win, but by how much.  If that doesn't tell the remaining Klingons of Conservopodnia that they're done, nothing will.

Facing electoral disaster of epic proportions there are still die-hard conservatives that won't give up the cause.  You can spot the dead-enders who are so lacking in self-awareness, intellectual honesty, and perspective they remain firmly wedded to an ideology that has spectacularly failed for all to see.

"Small government conservatives?"  Don't make me laugh.  The Government had enormously grown before the financial crisis, all to their delight; the occasional obligatory pang of worry notwithstanding since it was merely offered to cynically cover their true ideological passion -- destruction of those damn dirty hippies. 

Now with the nationalization of most of the financial industry, government is astronomically huge, an inconceivable amount of control and power and money, your money, has taken over our society in what seems like a blink of an eye, but has been creeping in this direction for decades.  Every time they grew the debt, they grew the government.

Ironically, it was their religious-like devotion to free market fundamentalism that required a socialistic themed intervention.

The era of Reagan is dead.  The conservative movement has been exposed as bankrupt of ideas as it bankrupted the nation.  Nothing could encapsulate the Zeitgeist better than Paul Krugman winning the Nobel Prize in Economics.  (Big Congrats Shrill Guy!)  Joining Al Gore in that fraternity is just icing on the cake.  Repudiation, thy name is Republican.

They've ruined us, these scam artists on the right.  As Ed Rollins put it today:  "James Carville's famous slogan in Bill Clinton's 1992 victory over the first Bush: 'It's the economy stupid!' can now be replaced with 'You morons, what have you done with my money, my life and my kids' future?'""

By any measure, in any field -- financially, diplomatically, in our ability to project power militarily, provide leadership through inspiration as opposed to intimidation both at home and abroad, from maintaining our infrastructure to honoring basic constitutional precepts like separation of church and state, due process (including habeas corpus), checks and balances and the notion of separate but equal branches of government -- the conservatives have wrecked havoc on the very ideals America is supposed to stand for.  We have sacrificed our mandate to provide for the general welfare by pouring the bulk of our resources into the common defense, to the point that as we face the reality of this economic turmoil we are in grave danger of being unable to do either.

To simply blame George Bush is convenient, a scapegoat who they will attempt to write off as someone untrue to the faith, never "really" a conservative at all.  Yet the remaining leaders of the Republican Party cling steadfastly to their orthodoxy.  House Minority Leader Roy Blunt is content to talk and walk the well worn path of tax cuts, and only tax cuts being the solution to absolutely everything.

Rep. Roy Blunt, the Missouri Republican who serves as House minority leader, said he would support a stimulus plan if it did not include massive public works spending and budget bailouts for states that overspent on health care and other social programs.

Come on Roy, how many more generations are we supposed to wait for all the largess to trickle down to the rest of us?  You guys in Washington and Wall Street have been passing so many bucks back and forth, stuffing each other's pockets with so much for so long you'd think some well worn holes would have opened up in your wallets by now -- but so far, not so much.

Blunt abhors those massive public works projects and infusion of cash to states who will be even more burdened to provide a social safety net on a dwindling tax base as the recession takes hold, which of course, are exactly what is required and should have been part of the last stimulus package.  It is notably missing from the current version of the bailout despite what some of those self-proclaimed geniuses proclaim from the  depths of their delusions (and some from outright utter stupidity ).  Fortunately, Obama does get it and was here in Toledo today promising exactly what we the people need as BushCo takes care of them the bankers.

Messieurs Yglesias and Klein note this handy chart from Moody's that illustrates exactly what return you can expect on a stimulus investment in a variety of projects.



If a Republican looks at that chart and believes the data that went into it, yet still refuses to consider the spending initiatives at the bottom of the list that clearly provide the most help where it's most needed and offer the biggest return on investment, then they are captive to a constituency they have failed to educate and have nothing but dogma and demonization keeping them in power.

Another titular head of the GOP, their candidate himself John McCain grasped for the tried and true panacea of elimination of capital gains taxes as well, before dumping it when it was pointed out that the last thing anyone is worried about right now is all the taxes they'll have to pay on their gains and dividends.  Nobody will realize a gain on their stock this year unless they divested quite some time ago.  If you're still holding stocks you'll be very lucky indeed if you get any kind of a dividend this year, which means the vast majority of 401(k) investors.  McCain's instinct was ridiculous as it was predictable.

I can hardly wait for version 4.8 of what John McSame really stands for tomorrow.  Not that it will matter, but it will give us lefties something to amuse ourselves with until he makes an ass out of himself at the (praise be) last debate.