I Don't Know Why He's Surprised By: Mark W Adams

Wednesday: 25 Iraqis Killed, 15 Wounded
Tuesday Update: 27 56 Iraqis Killed, 143 144 Wounded

Jerid at BSB really needs skoool'd on what's going on in Iowa. And for a political junkie, he shouldn't have been "surprised" that Edwards won the endorsement of the overwhelming number of Service Employee International Union state chapters.

I don't want to bust his preconceived notions or shatter his illusions that he's speaking his own mind and not just trafficking in the MSM's narrative. Nor do I want to go point-by-point and embarrass him before he has a chance to do his homework, but there are facts he misrepresents or minimizes which might change his opinion on at least three things he says about John Edwards earning the endorsement of 10 Local SEIU Chapters.

Being "surprised" was only the beginning. It should have been no surprise to anyone paying attention to how hard Obama and Clinton pushed the national leaders of SEIU not to come out for Edwards.

Still, this whole process shows that the Edwards campaign continues to falter, even with their strong labor relations.

From what I understand Edwards won, that's right, won 55% of the national SEIU endorsement sweepstakes. They wouldn't endorse without a 60% showing and Illinois and New York wouldn't budge on their favorite son/daughter. This prevents any non-Edwards union member from campaigning for anyone besides Edwards in the states where the chapters approved him, like Iowa. Oh, and that humungous State out west, California. Not too shabby.

And Nevada. Don't forget Nevada -- they go early too. His strongest support in Nevada stems from his early work with SEIU and walking on their picket lines during the hotel strike before he announced he was running. With neighboring California's 600,000 membership on boards, I have a good feeling about Nevada's SEIU chapter coming out for Edwards.

The retail politics of Edwards has been a stunning contrast versus the cash Obama and Clinton have poured into Iowa. They've spend millions to come even with John. In fact, after a $3 million media blitz by Obama (over 4,000 ads there) his numbers actually headed south. Clinton spent nearly $2 million on 1600 ads.

Edwards has spend a TOTAL of $26 Grand on advertising there (45 ads) and is doing fine.

Obama is right back where he was, 3rd in the 20%'s after all that money flushed away. Ask Richardson about the dip back to 8% after gaining on the heels of a $1.8 ad buy.

Edwards is spending his money on shoe leather and gassing up the bus (with appropriate carbon offsets) hitting every square inch of Iowa. And don't forget to look at the head-to-head matchup of Edwards versus any of the GOP candidates. Edwards beats them all and by a bigger margin than Clinton or Obama can.

Iowa is won on the ground, not the air. The more people buy into the Clinton inevitability meme, the bigger the fall will seem when Edwards takes Iowa. Everyone wants Iowa, wants it bad -- for a reason. But it's Edwards' State to lose. Kerry parlayed a victory there into the nomination, yet at this time last go around all we were hearing was Dean, Dean, Dean. Jerid, for all the outstanding work he does, can't shake the conventional wisdom sometimes.

Edwards continues to trail in fundraising, the polls, and has even announced the desperate move that they'll accept public financing. The District 1199 endorsement brings with it access to 22,000 Ohio laborers, but Edwards will need more than that to be competitive in Iowa.

I completely disagree with Jerid's take on public financing, especially the idea that it's the kiss of death -- try a little balance before coming to that conclusion, especially with a candidate able to self-finance like Edwards. The financial situation was always going to be tight for Edwards once he made the decision not to take lobbyist money. Clinton always had a money machine and Obama picked up every big bundler out there who was on the ABC side (Anybody But Clinton).

What gets me on the public financing thing is that once Kos, and the MyDD/Open Left guys pronounced it a bad idea, the rest of progressive blogtopia just nodded and went along -- despite the fact that each and everyone of them is in favor of publicly funded elections to stem the corruption. We should be praising that move and challenging everyone else to follow suit.

"This is going to be an election, Tim. It's not going to be an auction." Edwards on MTP, 10/07/07.