Quinnipiac Polls Ohio -- We Like Edwards
By: Mark W Adams

September 6, 2007 - Clinton Opens Lead Over Giuliani As Dems Surge In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Little Unity Among Republicans

That's their headline, but look underneath the hood and Edwards shines. He enjoys the highest favorability ratings 54%, and is within a tick of Obama for low negatives, 26%/25%.

Strange results analyzed below the fold...
X-Posted at KOS

Ohio voters give Giuliani a 48 - 30 percent favorability. Ratings for other candidates are:
  • 51 - 43 percent favorable for Clinton;
  • 44 - 28 percent favorable for McCain;
  • 47 - 25 percent for Obama;
  • 41 - 46 percent favorable for Gore;
  • 54 - 26 percent favorable for Edwards;
  • 58 percent don't know enough about Thompson to form an opinion.
  • 54 percent don't know enough about Romney to form an opinion.

Now here's the conundrum for us Edwards fans. While Buckeyes like John Edwards more than anyone else, when asked who registered Democrats would actually vote for, Hillary smashes the competition with 44% (37% men, a whopping 48% of women). Obama comes in a weak second at 15% with Edwards a distant third -- 11%.

Frankly, these results don't make sense to me. In head-to-head match-ups agains GOP rivals, Edwards and Clinton share near identical support, beating any and all Republican candidates by decent margins. In fact, Edwards beats the GOP potential nominees by slightly higher margins than Hillary. They are both doing better than Obama in each theoretical contest. In fact, Obama is in a statisical tie with McCain who edges out the Illinois Senator by one point -- the only possible loss of a Democrat to a Republican at this point. Here's the breakdown (margin of victory in parenthesis):

-- Giuliani40|
Edwards(+9)47-- Giuliani38
Clinton(+5)46-- McCain41|
Edwards(+8)46-- McCain38
Clinton(+12)49-- F.Thompson37|
Edwards(+18)50-- F.Thompson32
Clinton(+13)50-- Romney37|
Edwards(+18)50-- Romney32
Obama(+1)42-- Giuliani41

Obama41-- McCain(+1)42

Obama(+12)46-- F.Thompson34

Obama(+14)46-- Romney32

Why on earth are Ohioans saying they'll vote for Hillary over any other Dem -- by huge, huge margins -- when they not only like John Edwards better, but he also DOES better than her? I have no clue what's going on here.

That "electablility" thingy is standing right on it's head in this swing state. My only explanation is there is some kind of mass hypnosis going on, or we're second-guessing ourselves, actually buying the spin and George Bush's admonition that this Preznitin' Thing is Hard.

Do you have any thoughts why this poll seems so counter-intuitive?