Just Brilliant

The essence of the problem with our superficial media's political discourse.

The Cult of the Offhand Comment

Phrase coined by Somerby via Digby

Missing The Point On Losing Our Bearings

In an indication of things to come as shots are traded faster and faster between presidential campaigns, it's easy to miss the point -- or lack thereof -- when Barack Obama, John McCain and their surrogates trade barbs.

What we should all know and so many missed in the recent back and forth about Hamas preferring Obama and McCain losing his bearing is the simple fact that "Obama and McCain have the same position on Hamas —no talks, no recognition, no outreach."

Pay attention. The media may just throw this identity of position out there as a parenthetical as the Newsweek quote above. Or not, and ignore it for the more juicy yet wholly irrelevant coverage of whose zinger was more witty, or unfair.

It's easy to see how the presidential campaign could swiftly descend into tit-for-tat name-calling. Obama's advisers insist that the race will be about the big issues because there are stark contrasts between the candidates on Iraq and the economy. But if McCain thinks he can't win on those issues—if the war remains unpopular and the Bush downturn goes on—he will be sorely tempted to run down his opponent. The McCain campaign is now poring over Obama's record, looking for weaknesses that can be exposed without race-baiting or hitting below the belt. They want to brand Obama as a "superduper liberal who is out of the mainstream," says one McCain adviser who did not wish to be identified discussing internal campaign strategy.

Issues are boring, both to the electorate and the media. Even when the candidates are diametrically opposed on something it's difficult at best to both highlight those differences and make the case that Obama holds the superior position.

Forget about making noise when they see things the same way.

But on certain issues, it's vitally important that where they have no sunlight between them the GOP not get away with painting Obama as somehow weak or indecisive, or any of the standard canards they've been lobing at liberals for the past forty years.

Obama didn't hesitate to "fire" an "informal, outside" foreign policy adviser who spoke to Hamas as part of his real job in a conflict resolution think-tank, the International Crisis Group. [Just the sort of expert you might want some day to, you know, resolve the conflict there. No?]

The man's actions of course didn't comport with Obama's stated policy recognizing that Hamas is

“a terrorist organisation [and] we should not negotiate with them unless they recognise Israel, renounce violence”.

I think it's partly the fact that the media will quite understandably lead with the most intriguing controversy de jure, and partly the subtle agenda Rupert Murdock's London Times which broke the story with a headling that Barack fired an Hamas friendly adviser -- engaging in a not-so-subtle attempt at undermining Obama's as he is trying to persuade pro-Israeli factions here and abroad that their suspicions he would negotiate with terrorists are unfounded. This kind of headline speaks volumes

Barack Obama sacks adviser over talks with Hamas

The fact that ABC's Jake Trapper uncritically passed the story along complete with the with an Americanized headline announcing to those who are susceptible to the GOP's preferred suggestion that he would be too cozy with an adviser who spoke to Hamas in nearly identical fashion means to me either he's a Fox News plant, or just lazy -- or both.

Obama Fires Foreign Policy Adviser for Meeting With Hamas

Now I ask you, do those headlines, or even a quick reading of their associated stories leave the reader with the facts? Has the public been educated about the candidates respective, or rather identical positions when it comes to Hamas by reporting on this story this way? Of course not.

Could Camp Obama emphasized this fact better? Sure. But the way McCain's people shifted the story into a silly cat-fight, and the media's inability to do anything but highlight spectacle over substance is a disheartening harbinger of what is to come in the next several months.

McCain Is Making This Too Easy

John McCain being in bed with lobbyists is not really news, even when he's actually, you know, "in bed" with them. His notorious escapades as the "most culpable" of the Keating Five would certainly have left a less well connected politician spending more time with his family.

But this one goes way beyond schmoozing and playing the system. Johnathan Singer informs us that McCain tapped one of his lobbyist pals to run the GOP Convention this August, but let him go hours after Michael Isikoff's Newsweek story disclosed that the guy was the CEO of a firm representing the Burma Military Junta -- hired to whitewash their image with Washington insiders.

Singer then connects the dots with a Marc Ambinder note that a McCain Campaign regional manager was the stooge directly in charge of that Burmese (Myanmar) Junta account for the very same influence pedaling firm -- and he's still on the job.

Just calling John McCain a continuation of the Bush nightmare is giving him too much credit. This guy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the corporate kleptocracy. It doesn't matter if McCain fires this lobbyist or distances himself from that one. He's so swamped with them another would take take the place of an inconveniently notorious one in a heartbeat.

George Bush sold the American government to the highest (no)-bidder. A McCain administration would represent the new owners taking up residence.

Sweet Jesus I Hate Bob Novak

If you ever had a doubt that Kool-aide Drinking Hillary Supporter Armando (Big Tent Democrat) has completely sold his soul to the dark side, his jumping all over a bit of the usual unsourced gossip by Novakula should relieve you of such wishful thinking.

"Close-in supporters of Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign are convinced he never will offer the vice presidential nomination to Sen. Hillary Clinton for one overriding reason: Michelle Obama."

Please explain to me what retard inside Camp Obama is giving Bob Novak the time of day.

One thing we know, it ain't Michelle.

"My wife does not talk to Bob Novak on a regular basis," Obama told the reporters gathered around him, who included The Times' Robin Abcarian.

Does the very idea of how ludicrous is would be for any prominent Democrat to confide in a Wingnut propagandist like the CIA agent-outing Novak even begin to penetrate the walking, typing talking-point Open Left has become?

Uhh, nope:

... petty nonsense ... Obama will lose in November ... [blah, blah ... blah] ... juvenile ... heartily disgusted ...

And of course, [speaking only for him and the horse he rode in on], in the typical method most of right wing Blogistan has adopted, he once again closes his post with the epithet, "Comments closed."

Aren't ya glad this guy's on our side fellow liberals.

Grumpy McSame Knows All The Tricks

So he doesn't need to learn new ones.

McCain aid, Mark Saller: "We have all become familiar with Senator Obama’s new brand of politics. First, you demand civility from your opponent, then you attack him, distort his record and send out surrogates to question his integrity. It is called hypocrisy, and it is the oldest kind of politics there is."

He would know....

Here's the thing for all those who would argue that "playing the age card" is no better than racism or sexism when selecting the next president: BUNK!

Every day John McCain will get a little older, a bit more weary, a toll that saps the life out of everyone who ever took the job will work on debilitating McCain.

Barack Obama ain't getting any blacker, nor is Hillary getting more female for that matter. Indeed, once the numskulls get used to the idea, the racial and/or sexist attitudes will soften. With McCain, his age as a limiting factor on his ability to do the job will grow with each birthday.

No, it's not fair, and hardly a "liberal" attitude. And yes, many people -- including John McCain's mother -- remain vital and productive well into their 90's. But his advanced years are indeed a legitimate consideration on picking him for the job. A far better factor to weigh, in fact, than anyone's association with a wacky pastor, homophobic minister, or voodoo witch doctor for that matter.

However, close association with voodoo economists is quite the other thing.

Bottom Line On Spending Bills

The War Funding Bill

"However, President Bush has announced his opposition to any bill that contains veterans' benefits and unemployment insurance in addition to the war funds."

The Farm Bill

"House and Senate negotiators yesterday reached final agreement on a new farm bill that will spend close to $300 billion on nutrition, conservation, energy and farm subsidy programs over the next five years, but administration officials immediately announced that President Bush will veto it."

What perplexes me is not that the C+ Augustus in the White House hates anything rational or that helps anyone on a personal level -- like tuition in exchange for years spent in a combat zone or increasing nutritional programs for poor kids, or funding alternative fuel programs so someday we won't have to send our emaciated children to fight for oil.

No, what perplexes me is that our so-called representatives would go along with someone 71% of the nation can no longer stand and not laugh at his puny veto threats -- even those dastardly "Blue-Dogs" are still doing Bush's his bidding.

Ugh!

Fat Lady Dress Rehearsal Report

Clinton vows to stay in race "until there's a nominee."

Which apparently will be in about two weeks.

"Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

"And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

"It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race."

Democracy is a great thing, and generally that's that's what we participate in when selecting a nominee for a major political party. However, by now even those who didn't pay attention to your social studies teachers understand that the primaries are only an exercise in representative democracy in a pro forma way.

What with "Super Delegates," rules made and broken behind closed doors, campaign finance laws thwarted, "street money," and the inordinate influence of the corporate media, you can't miss the fact that there's a lot more afoot than simply one-person, one-vote.

And that's okay. It's all good because it all moves towards something more important that which candidate "wins." It builds a consensus.

As in most things in America, it starts and ends with money. It takes millions to even get a foothold in the early primary states, and the first major contest that the media reports on is months before any straw polls are taken. The end of the first quarter financial reporting deadline is examined with a fine tooth comb -- even to the point of documenting just how much a candidate spends on combing his or her hair -- much to John Edwards chagrin.

Until we found out about $400 hair cuts, we also assumed that Hillary Clinton had an enormous if not insurmountable advantage in cash, especially since she was able to transfer millions from her Senate campaign to her presidential run. But when the numbers came out the narrative changed when Obama proved what a formidable fund-raiser he was.

The chattering class chattered, the donors took note, the Clinton machine was vulnerable! At this point many of the super delegates who weren't with Hillary from the start froze and we all watched the back and forth as momentum built for Obama. He won Iowa, Hillary a distant third, and the chattering class chattered about momentum and polls that would crown a new inevitability in New Hampshire.

And they were wrong, and they were burned, and the supers remained frozen, and the battle was on because the people hadn't made up their minds. Burned once, the media discounted Obama's huge South Carolina win. Looking for trends, examining demographics in exit polls for an explanation, not trusting conventional or unconventional wisdom and astonished at how evenly matched the talking heads sounded to each other when they talked to themselves, they froze.

The supers hid, the money flowed, and after Tsunami Tuesday, with only a slight lead in states won and delegates awarded, nobody was ready to come close to declaring an advantage even though half the nation had spoken. By then both Obama and McCain had only won two more states than their second-place rivals. But where Obama only edged Clinton out by 12 delegates that day, McCain claimed 401 more delegates in a Party that only has about half as many at stake as the Democrats select via popular vote. (Oh yeah, they have super delegates too.)

Then as now, with Obama's win-streak prior to their tie in Texas and Hillary's win in Ohio -- a win big enough to freeze the narrative once again about anything being "clear" although even then Obama's lead was formidable enough that we knew she needed a miracle -- there was no consensus among Democrats who we would (or should) get behind.

"Winning" the primaries does not equate to a winning candidate in the fall. A united party is what it takes. If it were simply just about winning and not building a consensus, conventions would still be free-for-alls and not marketing devices. Stage one was the media declaring a victor, giving the supers cover upon coming out even if deciding against the indications of their own constituents.

Now, with more undeclared super delegates than pledged delegates at stake in the coming weeks, the dog and pony shows staged for the benefit of us riff-raff who's only power is our vote, is over. The democratic nomination now lies in the hands of those who always controlled things -- the media (who made up their minds as soon as their Grand Poobah Tim Russert declared Obama a winner), the politicians and the big money folks who are as influential as ever.

The party leaders' new roll, including all of the winning and losing candidates, is to form a narrative that will rally us around the winner and bring the losers back into the fold, to wean the media off the horse-race coverage to a more thematic story before they go back to covering this fall's horse race.

For the rest of us, much as you may hate the process that is so far removed from what they taught you about in grammar school, opting out is not an option.

[You can read more of Mark Adams' work at his blog, Dispassionate Liberal]

TIME Shocks With Hillary Epitaph

Karen Tumulty at TIME documents five mistakes Clinton made, and the blogs are abuzz with the incomprehensible lack of a basic understanding of the system by the campaign's favorite scape-goat, Mark Penn.

Naturally, anyone who is paid millions of dollars as a chief campaign adviser should know a thing or two about how this whole nomination thingy works. For instance, you'd think it would just be expected Mark Penn knew about proportional delegate allocation and that unlike the Republicans, Democrats don't have winner-take-all contests.

You'd think, but you'd be wrong. And Hillary was wrong to ever rely on him, let alone put his ugly puss in front of a TV camera.

Atrios has a hard time believing it. Armando, speaking only for himself, is cheered by the "utter demise" of Mark Penn's political career.

"Astonishing," Obsidian Wings

"Amazing," Tapped

"What a Pennhead," Talking Points Memo

"Anything is possible," TPM Election Central

Ironically, despite the smaryness of the traditional practice of the magnanimous winner paying off the debts of a gracious loser in these things, Mark Penn will probably be paid by the candidate for whom his indispensable advice was most helpful -- Barack Obama.

I Take It Back, She Is Done

The Tea Leaves?

NBC News reported the New York senator had cancelled morning television appearance and all public appearances on Wednesday.

The night before John Edwards called it quits he was still making speeches and rallying the troops, the volunteers were still working hard at assigned tasked and most of the campaign staff didn't have a clue that the sudden unexplained cancellation of the event scheduled for the next day should have told us the jig was up.

Now she's gone back to Washington to meet with Super Delegates and the party leadership where, like well meaning heads of the family will chart out the future for their chosen Golden Child and figure out how to help Barack Obama become the next President of the United States of American and end our long NeoCon nightmare (Thank whatever diety you may or may not honor).

The New York senator was upbeat but conciliatory Tuesday as she addressed supporters in Indianapolis.

"I can assure you, as I have said on many occasions, that no matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party, because we must win in November," she said, even while vowing to continue the race.

Obama celebrated his North Carolina victory by sounding like an eventual nominee.

"Tonight," Obama said, "many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided; that Senator Clinton's supporters will not support me, and that my supporters will not support her. Well, I'm here tonight to tell you that I don't believe it."

She's thrown everything she had at Obama, and he's stronger for it. She doesn't have anything left, and no money to do any more damage. For all that, she ends up the evening losing North Carolina and tying Indiana, a net loser in both delegates and popular votes in two big States that were really her last hope.

After Pennsylvania, the narrative coming from Camp Clinton was why can't he close the deal. Now, the reality is nothing, not even a "nuclear option" can stop him.

Hillary Gracious, But Not Done ... Quite

There's something pathological about someone who will sit through yet another set of post election speeches this season. Just call me loony.

Tonight Hillary Clinton's tone was a tad more humble, a bit more like someone facing the inevitable than a candidate claiming a "game changing" victory. While vowing to go on, knowing she got crushed in North Carolina (one of the "Big Swing States" for those paying attention) and as of the time of this writing her margin of "victory" in a State her buddy Evan Bayh was supposed to deliver in a big way is only 39,000 with over 200,000 votes left to be counted in Obama strongholds, I was left with the idea that this was a bow before the encore which will bring down the final curtain.

[Update 12:45 est, the margin is down to 16,000 votes, Clinton 51%, Obama 49% -- a tie]

She said they would fight for Florida and Michigan's delegations to be seated and fight on in the few States that are left. However, there was an fondness in the way she spoke of Bayh tonight that reminded me of the wistful way you say goodbye to a good friend after a long visit. Her genuine affection for her husband and especially her pride in their daughter, all spoke unconsciously that this long journey was nearing an end.

Most intriguing was her pledge to fight "for the Democratic nominee," an emphatic conciliatory gesture to camp Obama.

Unlike so many GOP tools, when Hillary tips at windmills like gimmicky tax holidays that will never pass and are terrible ideas, or even true Quixotic quests to fight on in a campaign that can't be won -- she really knows better. She's really too smart for some of the political posturing she's been up to lately, way better than that. When John "Ace" McSame says the economy or Iraq are just doing fine, and that all our problems will be solved if the Federal Government gives everyone a free tank of gas, what frightens me is that I really think he, like the current C+ Augustus in the White House, actually buys this crap.

If Hillary really believes some of the junk and pandering we've seen over the last couple of months she just ought to get it over with and run as an independent with Joe Lieberman and quit the Democratic Party. She's also smart enough to know that dumb and underinformed people vote too.

Here's the lowdown at this point:

1. Tonight Obama erased the effects of his defeat in Pennsylvania -- at least mathematically in the popular vote and delegate count.



2. Who's going to give her any more cash at this point? Ridiculous. Hillary's broke, millions in debt, and the chattering class at MSNBC are speculating that part of the wind-down to this will include Obama's campaign assuming some of her bills -- including Mark Penn and the Clintons themselves -- as well as seating Florida and Michigan "her way" now that they really don't matter.
   



3. There are now more Super Delegates up for grabs than pledged delegates to be elected in all the contests that are left, WV, KY, Puerto Rico (bigger than most think) etc. which look to be pick-ups for Hillary (he wins Oregon solidly) that still will not put her over Obama's lead -- the "real" campaign now moves behind closed doors.



4. She really lost Indiana tonight, a State that I picked long ago on Tsunami Tuesday to be delivered in a big way by Senator Bayh as her clincher and his ticket to the Vice Presidency. That's why I stick to post even analysis instead of prognostication. Winning the Bigot Vote in a Democratic primary -- when those folks will never, ever, vote for the Democrat in the fall -- is no victory whatsoever.



5. Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos is in full force with hard-core Republicans voting in the Democratic primary.



6. While saying Indiana is still too close to call even after midnight, MSNBC'S big guns, Russert, Matthews, Todd all joined Olbermann calling the election itself, nationwide, for Obama. Once the chattering class who infect Versailles on the Potomac have made up their minds and line up to fight Johnny McSame, it's really all over. You know it, and so do the Super Delegates.

With all due respect to contrarian voices (Luv ya Rachel Maddow!), Hillary is really a nice, more gracious person than the candidate she plays in front of the cameras. At least I hope so or much like that sad filly on Sunday, she's going to cripple herself by running too hard to finish second in this race.