So Sick Of This

Maybe I'm just sick of being sick since I've been dealing with a chest cold for over a week now.  Maybe it's because I already voted, so in my subconscious I know none of the remaining flourishes of the campaigns make any difference to me personally.  Maybe, no ... without a doubt John McCain, Sarah Palin, their surrogates, spokespeople, bloggers and plumbers have fried my very last nerve.

Four more days.  One long weekend and we will finally have elected Senator Obama.  In just over a hundred hours from now, the polls will begin closing and John McCain will leave us Ohio voters alone, never to return.  Seriously, the guy is like a stalker.

The good news is, if the CNN poll of polls is any indication (and who really knows), he's not making any new friends in the Buckeye State.  McCain's strategy of swamping Ohio with his presence -- chasing down every contrarian in the State who either gets some secret pleasure in confounding pollsters, or is so completely and deliberately uninformed they really should be disqualified from voting -- is just pissing off the rest of us who've made up our minds.

I hear Obama's on his way back here too, just to rub our noses in the fact that Ohio, as usual, is home to the most fickle voters on the planet.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm delighted that unlike John Kerry in 2004, the Democrats have not given up on us, but I wish Arnold Schwarzenegger would.  Of course, it's always a pleasure to welcome Bill Clinton to Toledo, but he wasn't here so much (it seems) to flush out more Obama votes as to allay our fears that Ohio could be lost and turn the scales to McCain if the polls are wrong and Obama doesn't hold on to his slight lead.

During both of his public speeches in Ohio, the former president pointed out how crucial the states's 20 electoral votes are for a Republican win on Tuesday.
"In all those elections since 1836, not a single, solitary Republican has ever been elected without carrying Ohio," he said in Toledo.
"Once in a great while, but rarely, the Democrats have eased in without carrying Ohio, but that's rare … the point is that you have this election and the future of our country in your hands."

Thanks Bill, that makes us all feel so much better.

No wonder Al Gore didn't put this guy out on the stump. If it isn't about him, and campaigning for Hillary was all about him as well, his heart just isn't in it all the way.

If You Were Wondering What's Next

After Washington is conquered by the DFH, whatever will a liberal blogger do with his time?

• Pack for that long over-due vision quest?
• Invest the remains of his stock portfolio in hand-cut flowers and airport literature?
• Get back to the gym to eliminate eight years of flabby un-Americanism?

Or BLOG, BABY, BLOG!!

'Joe the Plumber' Mulling Run for Congress

Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. "Joe the Plumber," said Friday he may consider running for Congress in 2010, challenging longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) in the Toledo-area district.

"I'll tell you what, we'd definitely be in one heck of a fight," Wurzelbacher said during an appearance on the Laura Ingraham show Friday, "but, you know, I'd be up for it."

"There is a movement afoot to draft you to run for Congress," Ingraham said. "Joe, let me tell you something: you decide to run for Congress, and I'll help you with your PR, I'll help you do your ads, I mean, I'll volunteer to help you."

Ingraham's producer, Brian Feldman, said that during the break after the segment, Wurzelbacher told Ingraham that his statements today represent the first time he has acknowledged considering a bid for Congress in public.

Wurzelbacher said he did agree with Kaptur's vote against the bailout, and touted his support for a flat tax on income.

BRING IT THE FUCK ON, DUDE.

So what do we have here? A netroots darling, a veteran of the progressive cause versus a guy who's name ain't Joe, isn't licensed to be a plumber, doesn't pay his taxes, thinks it's socialism for his non-existent tax increases to go to folks who didn't work as hard as he did -- unless he's the guy collecting welfare.

He's perfect. Just as phony as McCain and clueless as Palin. A made-to-order wingnut media darling. And I'm just the guy to crush his dreams.

Come on Joe, give me a reason to blog!

;-)

Ohio Poll And Job Numbers

Obama - Plus 11.5% ?  Plus 14% ?!?  Holy Crap!
Jobs - Minus 7.2% ?  Minus 434,000 ?!? Oh Shit!!

Something stinks with all those numbers.  Not that I don't believe them.  I'm no expert on statistical analysis or unemployment calculations.  It's just that numbers like this usually only exist in some alternate universe.  A figment of a bizzaro imagination.

Look folks, whatever the "experts" say, we've been in a recession for a year now, and we've got a year or two more of the same crap facing us.  Most recessions last no more than 8 months and aren't even declared until they're over.  This one's much harder to obscure.  We aren't so much running with the "hot chick" as running from the ugly one when it comes to our choice in new leadership. 

Ohio, perennial grand prize in the presidential sweepstakes, is right in the middle of our economic woes.

Yesterday, Chrysler eliminated it's entire second shift in Toledo's Jeep plant, over 825 jobs half a mile from my blue-collar bar that caters to these guys and the factory workers and tool-n-die workers, drivers, broom pushers and upholstery makers who supply the place, adding to a steep rise in unemployment claims which were already in recession territory.

When you consider the employer-matched taxes, health insurance premiums, unemployment and workers compensation payments each Jeep employee represents on top of their salary, a modest estimate of the economic effect of losing those jobs is about $90,000 per worker, or almost $75 Million of Toledo's economy was just wiped out.  The mayor said in no uncertain terms the Jeep layoffs, "reflect the disastrous economic policies of the Bush presidency." 

Mayor Finkbeiner announced a three-day shut down of all nonessential government business to try to claw the city out of debt knowing it's tax revenue will be another million or two less than projected with the lay offs.  It was bad before, it never felt like we recovered from the first "W" recession.  Now I feel like I'm at ground zero of the collapse of the real economy.  I remember the feeling, having lived outside of Youngstown, Ohio when the steel mills closed in the late seventies.  (Hey, it's not my fault, dammit.)

Of course, the way it works is exactly the opposite of what the government should be doing.  When all those city-workers lose three days pay, they'll buy less which hurts all the area's small businesses.  We sell a fair amount of Budweiser to guys off work from the city garage down the street -- who will be buying just that much less.  A municipality that cannot run a defict really has no choice, I know.  But knowing that doesn't mitigate the suck.  This will be exactly the opposite of economic stimulation.

But we're a blue county here in Northern Ohio, solidly Democratic.  My Congress woman, Marcy Kaptur, is a netroots hero who voted against the Wall Street bailout, both times, because once again Washington's fix was to help the millionaires and not people who work for a living.  The fact that bad
things are happening in the Rust Belt doesn't phase GOP election strategy.  They only care about the voters who live closer to the River than the Lake.

Nevertheless, the overall Ohio unemployment data has got to effect John McCain's chances here.  There are five Ohio counties that have over 10% unemployment right now -- all but one are outside of the Lake Erie watershed and each voted strongly for Bush in 2004. (Tables and maps available here.)  Huron in Northern Ohio, Van Wert in the West, Pike, Meigs and Morgan counties in the South and Southeast have the worst jobs outlook in the state right now.  Believe it or not, the numbers say this won't matter as much as you might think, not everywhere.

It could be enough to push Obama over the edge, but some red counties in Ohio are just plain stubborn.  Here's why.  Back in September of 2004, Pike county, Bush country, had a 9.5% unemployment rate.  Meigs was at 9.6% and Morgan boasted 9.8% out of work.  None are really that much worse now at 10%+, a point or so higher in these Appalachian foothills.  Despite tumbling over they abyss they were only looking into four years ago, they'll vote for McCain.  Watch. 

I think the economy will, however, make a difference in a northern county like Huron whose unemployment was high enough at 6.7% in '04, or in western Van Wert which only saw a 4.9% jobless rate when they voted for Bush.  These folks don't know what hit 'em now that they're in double digits.

Of course outside of Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati there are few "red" zones with large population centers in Ohio, and the vote counts in the urban centers were very close last time.  Van Wert county, on the other hand, is one of the least populous, so it's nothing to get excited about if it switches to the Democrat on the heels of doubling it's unemployment rate (even though it would be noteworthy and very welcome if it went blue).  

Huron county is another story, half-way between the Cleveland and Toledo metro areas it would be a healthy addition to the blue column -- but they don't have an especially high concentration of voters there either, but it's even more welcome to join the reality based community. 

As for the big red counties, the Dayton metro area (Montgomery county) is witnessing a 7.8% unemployment rate, 1.3% more than in October of 2004.  That translates into 17,700 people on the streets then compared to 21,300 now.  To give you an idea how that compares to Van Wert county, there were only 14,827 total voters there in 2004, less voters in Van Wert than job hunters in Dayton. 

Huron county turned out 25,557 voters in 2004.  Today there are more people scouring the help wanted ads in Hamilton county (Cincinnati) which had 23,500 unemployed in October of 2004 (5.6%) and just barely went for Bush.  Now there are nearly 3,000 more people looking for work there (6.3%) who are not only bitter (whether they cling to guns and religion or not), but who have family and friends depending on them who are equally pissed off at the way the Republicans have mis-managed everything economic.  Just these slight downturns in the Southwestern Ohio metro centers may have a much more dramatic effect on voter sentiment than more rural areas facing unemployment rates they haven't seen in generations.

Columbus, much like Washington DC, really doesn't have a workforce that makes anything -- except trouble and paperwork for the rest of the state.  While higher than four years ago, they still are around the national average when it comes to joblessness.  It's more about the availability of enough working voting booths there than working people.  If everybody in Franklin county who wants to vote, gets to vote -- they go blue.

Loyal GOPers, bless their deluded souls, have a built-in excuse for losing this one.  Somehow, "mysteriously," the economy tanked.  But this is an economy of their own making.  I will never forget Bush's second Treasury Secretary Snow, a Toledo native for Pete's sake saying outsourcing was a good thing back in '04, and that new jobs were coming to Ohio.  What bull!

The sad part, for the Republicans anyway, is that despite all of this John McCain actually had a chance to win on this issue.  He had a real shot at owning the economic argument.  No really, he did. 

He could have parlayed that campaign "suspension" gimmick into a true maverick moment, rejected the bailout on principle alone as passionately as did Marcy Kaptur, but for entirely different reasons -- earmarks -- and spent the last two months lambasting Bush for his financial fecklessness without fear of damaging his support with the conservative base since there is no definition of conservatiism that can be applied to Bush's fiscal policies.

What a douche.

Prime Mover: Will Ohio Become THE Play-ah?

If this happens -- and I've really no idea whether it will or won't, your life could become something completely different -- I know mine will. I hope it does, only because, well ... it should.

BSB: Kearny Looks to Move Ohio Primary to January

(Columbus) — State Senator Eric Kearney, with the support of Ohio Senate Assistant Democratic Leader Tom Roberts of Dayton and State Senator Shirley Smith of Cleveland, announced the introduction of legislation to change the date of Ohio’s presidential primary to the last Tuesday in January. The bill would move Ohio’s presidential primary from March 4, 2008 to January 29, 2008, increasing Ohio’s impact on the primary process.

‘I believe it is critical that Ohioans have a voice in who the presidential nominees are before it is a foregone conclusion. The current primary date is so late, Ohio voters, including our substantial minority communities, will be disenfranchised if the date is not changed,’ Kearney stated.

Current Ohio law requires the presidential primary to be scheduled for the Tuesday after the first Monday in March, and was set years ago when the Super Tuesday primaries occurred in March of the presidential election year. With the advance of so many primaries to January and February, a March date is no longer timely for Ohio voters. The interests of cities, minority communities and organized labor suffer if the early nominating process is dominated by small, rural, right-to-work states.

‘Ohioans want the presidential candidates from both parties to come to our state, listen to our voices, and propose real solutions to our most pressing needs,’ said Senator Roberts.

‘The move of Florida to the last Tuesday of January opens the calendar for primaries to January 29, 2008, and the industrial Midwest should be represented along with the South on what could be a crucial primary election day,’ Senator Kearney noted.

‘As the key battleground state that decided the 2004 election, it just makes sense for Ohio to be a part of the process alongside Florida, which decided the 2000 election,’ said Senator Smith.

Greg Palast and the other folks who've been documenting the stolen elections in FloriDUH and Ohio since 2000 might want to buy some extra duck tape, because their heads could easily explode with both of these States voting the same day.

I'm all for it. This thing will be long over (as it usually is) by March. You don't win the general election without winning Ohio. The primaries should reflect who really can do it in the fall. This move will leave no doubt.

Besides the reports BSB acknowledged from the Cincinatti Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal, and Cleveland.com, the Plain Dealer moved the story from it's blog to the paper itself -- where we learn that Senator Kearney's wife hosted a fundraiser for Obama earlier this year, but denies it's a move to help his chances. Also two updated Enquirer articles have weighed in along with the Ravenna Record Courier and Dayton's WHIOtv and WCPO in Columbus

(Via Buckeye State Blog - Pamphleteers of the Revolution.)

FINALLY! Edwards Faces Issue Based Critique

And not some trite jab at his hair or the usual confusion about how a guy can live the Horatio Alger Rags-to-Riches story and still give a damn about the poor.

Red Sonya, comes right out and calls John Edwards' policies "socialist."

She notes with interest that the campaign signed on two high-profile anti-WalMart activist, one another former Deaniac and Joe Trippi buddy, Paul Blank, as well as Wake Up WalMart's chief spokesperson, Chris Kofinis. Sonya then offers the insightful analysis that when a candidate for president speaks before 600 steelworkers, all union activists in Northeastern Ohio -- an area that still hasn't recovered from the collapse of the steel manufacturing industry in the late 70's and early 80's -- and suggests that combining environmentally responsible projects with organized labor to create millions of jobs: he must be some kinda commie.

Oh damn! My bad. She is indeed a lightweight political neo-con-poop.

If you can stop laughing long enough to read to the end of her "in-depth" foray into political theory, you'll see she not only couldn't resist the obligatory hair, um ... cut; but also takes a swipe at Elizabeth Edwards' wardrobe.

Honestly, how do people like this gain a place in our public discourse? More to the point -- who gave this woman a gig as a radio talk show host?

I lived the transformation of Youngstown, Ohio. I saw firsthand how it went from a boom town to a ghost town. The Mahoning River Valley was somewhere every kid could grow up and always knew that even if he or she was only mediocre at school, they could get a job where their dad, and grand-dad worked -- at the steel mills. Right about the time folks my age were graduating high school, the bottom fell out of the U.S. Steel industry.

I was lucky. I had studied hard. I could get out, go to college, then law school, and do something else. A good number of my friends and neighbors weren't so blessed. About half left the area because under Reaganomics there were no jobs trickling down to replace those outsourced to Japan and Europe and the cheaper labor markets of Mexico and the third world. We didn't have a word for it then, outsourcing. We had other words for the phenomenon that are hardly printable.

I never went back either, except to visit family -- those that stuck around and had nowhere else they could go. Those that were too vested in their declining property or too old to learn new skills.

So, when John Edwards, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich went to Cleveland on Thursday, and Hillary Clinton spoke on Friday in an address to 600 steel workers at their union conference, I had mixed emotions. It was fantastic that by their mere presence I knew we were not forgotten, that the sons and daughters of the mill workers of Northeastern Ohio were remembered by the folks who want to lead this nation. But I can remember a day when that type of meeting would have brought six thousand, not merely six hundred union faithful. (Or even the eight hundred reported by the union organizers.)

I have to note the interesting dynamics of the candidates' appearances at the conference. Joe Biden told the crowd what they are always told -- that if we invest in our infrastructure, build more bridges and roads, we'll create more jobs. Nothing wrong there, but hardly anything new. Somehow, however, I don't see the Senator from the State of MBNA whose expertise is in foreign policy being the savior of the manufacturing base of the rust belt.

Hillary's appearance was more notable for what she did not say. While promising to be a friend of the union folks (as if she'd say "screw you" to such an audience) she refused to stick around and answer questions as originally promised. In a press release, Dennis Kucinich (He's a real socialist Sonya, for future reference.) eviscerated Senator Clinton for her cowardice, that by her actions she did indeed say, "screw you."

"It borders on arrogance for a Democrat to deliver pro-union promises and platitudes in prepared remarks, but then refuse to engage in an honest and open conversation with workers whose lives have been profoundly impacted by disastrous trade policies -- especially NAFTA, which was
enacted during the Clinton Administration.

"Does Senator Clinton support NAFTA? Will she attempt to 'fix it,' as former Senator Edwards proposed yesterday? Or will she have the courage to repeal it, as only Congressman Kucinich has proposed? Members of the steelworkers union and other industrialized unions did not get any answers
because they weren't permitted to ask the questions.

"Candidates have an obligation to go beyond orchestrated and scripted performances, answer tough questions, and address serious issues. If they calculate that it is preferable to side-step that obligation when they are trying to win votes, voters will be left wondering where those candidates really stand and what they will really do if elected. If anything, Senator Clinton has an even higher obligation to address this issue because NAFTA was enacted during the Clinton Administration. Someone needs to ask where the Senator stands. And the Senator has a responsibility to answer."

Ouch!

Of course, Dennis was on his home turf, and probably felt a bit emboldened since he was surrounded by more friendly faces than he is used to. However, from a purely analytical viewpoint, the most interesting presentation was by Senator John Edwards, a veteran of union organizing throughout the country.

I know that there is an inherent partisanship bias in what I say about his proposals -- but it's his proposals themselves, their specifics, bold yet practical solutions, and innovative approaches are what sold me on John Edwards in the first place. So don't just go by me, but do take note that the Youngstown Vindicator was impressed.

Edwards wants to fix NAFTA as Kucinich said, as well as make continued increases in the minimum wage, and create an alliance of blue-collar workers with environmental initiatives that could create a new manufacturing base of new technologies designed to combat environmental change and our dependance on fossil fuels. This is all designed to replace the industrial infrastructure that's been eroding unabated for the last quarter century. Sorry Joe, we've gotta make more than just roads and bridges.

Finally, Edwards, the mill-worker's kid who went to law school, must have impressed enough of the folks right there in Kucinich's back yard to peel off an impressive list of endorsements.

Parma, Ohio, is the heart of Kucinich country, yet their mayor is now officially on the Edwards bandwagon along with the their State Rep, Timothy J. DeGeeter, the Parma Clerk of Courts and the neighboring Parma Hts. Mayor.

I've dealt with Cuyahoga County prosecutor Bill Mason, a straight arrow and one of the good guys, who's now also an Edwards supporter. State Reps. from across Northeastern Ohio are standing behind Edwards too, from Elyria, Amherst, Westlake, Austintown, and Dan Dodd representing the Hocking river valley folks in the Southeast. Not to mention one of Ohio's most progressively minded intellectuals, Bob Hagan from Youngstown itself -- where this mess of an economy started.