tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post7452517075678710966..comments2023-12-26T16:48:34.886-05:00Comments on Dispassionate Liberal: Bring It BamaMark W Adamshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13535890174971048423noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-66522405012778008702008-02-15T13:06:00.000-05:002008-02-15T13:06:00.000-05:00Dang. "topic."Dang. "topic."Arahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13833639196971015060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-9710635562098736832008-02-15T13:05:00.000-05:002008-02-15T13:05:00.000-05:00More on the topid here.More on the topid <A HREF="http://www.rubyan.com/politics/2008/02/why-clintons-super-delegate-st.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>.Arahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13833639196971015060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-26634371244661436552008-02-15T11:54:00.000-05:002008-02-15T11:54:00.000-05:00something that's pure speculation.Not so. You read...<I>something that's pure speculation.</I><BR/><BR/>Not so. You read the same analyses that I do. Obama get the Independents and Hillary doesn't. <BR/><BR/>I'll tell you what pure speculation is: it's when you create a strategy that contains four "if's" and one "contingent." (I counted). <BR/><BR/>Don't you want to win easier than that? If your margin for error is that close in a friendly primary, how are we going to win in November?Arahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13833639196971015060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-23819023529613712752008-02-15T10:45:00.000-05:002008-02-15T10:45:00.000-05:00You seem awful damn sure of yourself for something...You seem awful damn sure of yourself for something that's pure speculation.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly enough, I don't disagree.<BR/><BR/>I still think it needs to be played out and it's far too soon to be calling a convention 6 months from now an undemocratic event because super delegates have a say in things. <BR/><BR/>Also note that all of this is contingent on Hillary winning the remaining big states. I wonder what the conventional wisdom will be if she makes it close or wins in Wisconsin and keeps her lead in TexOhPenn and takes Indiana too.<BR/><BR/>What if she's just a hair ahead without Michigan and Florida but only if we're counting her lead in super delegates?<BR/><BR/>That's a hard call Ara, and you know it.<BR/><BR/>There's good arguments on both sides, and we have two extraordinary candidates.<BR/><BR/>And what happens to your point about independents and stray GOPers if Obama is actively campaigning FOR Hillary?Mark W Adamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13535890174971048423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-47205395957612870102008-02-15T10:28:00.000-05:002008-02-15T10:28:00.000-05:00Obama doesn't carry big states -- yet.As you know,...<I>Obama doesn't carry big states -- yet.</I><BR/><BR/>As you know, it's all about the pledged delegates -- whether they're from California or North Dakota....<BR/><BR/>...unless...(wait for it)...<BR/><BR/>...you're saying Hillary Democrats in California will stay home if the race is Obama v. McCain? Or vote for McCain?<BR/><BR/>Say it ain't so!<BR/><BR/>It ain't so. <BR/><BR/>So you'd have to agree that the Hillary voters will vote for Barack in the fall if he is the nominee, right? Of course. <BR/><BR/>But, at the margins, the reverse may not be true: Independents and Republicans will not vote for her the same way they'd vote for him (as of now). <BR/><BR/>Bottom line: At this point in time, it's pretty clear -- Obama expands the Democratic base. Hillary does not. <BR/><BR/>This means he has a better shot at getting elected than she does.Arahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13833639196971015060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-54247773342294722902008-02-15T08:04:00.000-05:002008-02-15T08:04:00.000-05:00she's a bull that carries around her own china sho...<I>she's a bull that carries around her own china shop.</I><BR/><BR/>You did NOT just make that up yourself! That's a great analogy.<BR/><BR/>And I've no argument that tracking the independents and stray GOPers would be a better indicator of strength -- but with the data at hand only available from polling, it's not as solid as the fact that Obama doesn't carry big states -- yet.<BR/><BR/>I'd be a lot more comfortable if he could prove himself outside Illinois and Georgia.<BR/><BR/>If Hillary sweeps TexOHPenn, this thing will be back to virtual tie territory again -- rightly so. She will have earned it. Then we've got a convention that means something. And if she doesn't, she's done. <BR/><BR/>It comes down to organization. Obama had to create a grassroots structure from scratch. Hillary had been nursing a top-down network for a decade or more. Combined they are unstoppable. Fighting each other leaves a stalemate.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly enough, if this goes on through May, his grassroots appeal will be as strong as it can get and butt up against a state where she is arguably stronger than anywhere outside of her base in the NY NJ area because she can tap into a institutionalized local machine, a fortress for the DLC -- Evan Bayh's Indiana.<BR/><BR/>If this isn't decided by then (and if the polls hold, it won't be) her earliest and strongest endorser, someone who IMO is still the frontrunner for her VP choice, will have to deliver the last big midwestern state.Mark W Adamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13535890174971048423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4800203224024653867.post-3807909825123060372008-02-14T23:11:00.000-05:002008-02-14T23:11:00.000-05:00Winning primary states has nothing to do with winn...Winning primary states has nothing to do with winning those same states in the general. And that cuts for and against Clinton the same as it does Obama. <BR/><BR/>A better analysis might be to project which candidate will be able to get the Independent swing voters as well as any stray Republicans (of which there are more than a few). Obama has demonstrated that he can expand the Democratic base with them; Clinton...not so much. <BR/><BR/>If anything, Clinton unites our enemies and divides our friends. <BR/><BR/>But she makes up for it by being a hell of a fighter, right? Problem is, that's like saying she's a bull that carries around her own china shop. I'm exhausted just thinking about that.Arahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13833639196971015060noreply@blogger.com