The problem is Whelan sees that it's our military, not FEMA taking the lead and briefing the public. To date it seems FEMA is still a disfunctional organization, three long years after "Heckuvajob."
When you pour the lion's share of all your resources into the Pentagon for decades, is it really a surprise that the military is the only fully functional government department?
I just noticed that the daily brief customarily done in advance of a hurricane is happening because Gustov is bearing down on the Gulf Coast...but a big shift here: the briefing is being given by NORTHCOM. So what does this tell us and why does it matter? It tells us that things are as broken as they were before Katrina.
The military, like EPA, Commerce, or anyone else, is only involved in emergency management to the point that they are requested to do so by the governor or the FEMA director (who acts on behalf of the President).
When it comes to disasters, the governor is always in charge. At any point, he or she can call in their state's National Guard, and/or ask other governors for their help in augmenting response efforts with their national guard or other resources. If a governor is worried things are getting out of control, they ask the President to provide help through FEMA at any point before or after the incident. FEMA is then in charge of coordinating the resources of the federal government to support the governor and the state. In a sense, when FEMA is working properly--as it did under Clinton--when the FEMA director tells another Federal agency to do something, it's as if the President is calling. The government agency is expected to deliver and cut through red tape to make things happen and happen fast.
There is no allowance or legal authority for the Department of Defense to take any sort of control or command in this scenario. In a hurricane, DoD, like Human Services, Transportation, etc, all work for FEMA and the governor of the impacted state.
Jerry Springer was mayor of Cincinnati for a year, a city of some 330,000.
Sarah Palin has been the Governor of Alaska for almost two years, a State with twice as many people as Cincinnati.
Twice the executive experience leading two times more people than Jerry Springer.
Fabulous! And scandals too!
Fittingly the Democrat Springer was getting blow jobs from a hooker and it ruined his political future. Palin? What's a little abuse of power for personal gain as long as you're a Republican with ties to the oil companies? IOKIYAR!
For 21 more "Hilarious" reasons picking Palin should be relentlessly mocked, see Robert Greenwald's Blog.
Duh! Alaska's killer bears on the loose. (Due respect to S. Colbert.)
Meanwhile, we lost one more soldier today and two yesterday in that fucking war, bringing the U.S. total casualty count up to five this week. That gets added to the 266 killed and 176 wounded Iraqis reported (plus another 9 victims of that favorite Baghdad pastime, kidnapping, in what McCain calls "A peaceful, stable, prosperous, democratic state that poses no threat to its neighbors and contributes to the defeat of terrorists."
Preoccupied with the horrors of yet another Global Warming denying Veep with a gun fetish, Blogtopia (ysctp!) largely ignored (at its peril) the dangers faced when we turn on the End Of The World Machine -- which might prove once and for all that the Universe was indeed designed by a Mad Magazine cartoonist during an acid trip induced fit of boredom. That would certainly explain how we could start a war based on the lies of Iranian spy/bank embezzler Ahmed Chalabi, who's deputy is now in jail accused of terrorist bombings.
Then again, we probably should rejoice, since this week spells the end of the Reagan Era coalition as well as the death of Trickle Down economics.
Who said you never should bring out a new product in August. We are at the beginning of a whole new world folks. Let's do it right this time.
But the former beauty queen is known as Sarah Barracuda, so this dog has teeth. Not that she's a dog or anything -- she's purrty, yep. As long as Biden remains the gentleman he is, there should be no worries at their debate. I hope.
Meanwhile, I continue to marvel at how out of left field Talk Left's Armando (BTD) continues to be this election cycle. Breaking with co-blogger Jeralyn Merrit (who doesn't really prove she's over her feminist blind-spot by staing the obvious -- that Palin simply isn't qualified and helps Obama more than McCain) Armando can't accept the ridiculousness of the Palin pick, thinking instead this is a calculatedly inspired attempt to strategically remake McCain's message.
Nor is he content to leave us with his, uhm ... interesting opinion. He sites approvingly fellow Klinton Kool Aid drinker Ed Kilgore with this nonsense:
Let's regroup a bit here, shall we. McCain left his last bit of Maverick Manhood on the alter of the Christian Right's demand that they be relevant; that they remain powerful enough to hold a veto threat on Mccain's choice of running mate.
I have to admit some significant disagreement with how most Democrats (including the Obama campaign) are reacting to the choice of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running-mate. Many are simply deriding Palin as a lightweight or someone obviously unqualifed to be commander-in-chief--another Dan Quayle. Others watched the event in Dayton and found the whole thing laughable.
. . . [W]hat I saw in Dayton was (1) the "maverick" GOP presidential candidate introducing his "maverick" running mate, even though Palin, even more than McCain, is actually a conservative ideologue whose selection thrilled both cultural and economic factions of the Right; (2) a direct appeal by Palin to HRC supporters to consummate Hillary's campaign by shattering the splintered "glass ceiling;" (3) a compelling personal story of a woman who (a) has one son with Down's Syndrome, (b) another who is being deployed to Iraq on September 11; (c) is married to a Native American (at least technically) union worker and athlete; and (d) has bravely defied her party and oil companies in Alaska.
Taylor Marsh at least has put down the Clinton Crack pipe and tells us McCain thinks women are stupid and want's to mute his geezer quotient with Palin's babe vibe. He also was prevented from acting on his own instincts, choosing a running-mate he doesn't even know.
McCain faced outright revolt Monday in Minneapolis if his choice wasn't anti-choice. Karl Rove warned off his best friend, Joe Lieberman despite his militantly chickenhawk bona fides as way too liberal (read: reasonable) on non-war issues. Condi Rice won't have anything to do with this silly game it seems since the White House has done it's best to take Iraq off the table for McCain, and the tax-cut purists have been successful in making the Maverick buck his own Maverickness, enjoying McCain's about-face on disapproving the Bush/Cheney administration's approach to the economy.
The banking arm of their party had to back off pushing Romney once McCain's "housing problem" came to the fore, but no doubt would have forced McCain to make his bed with an avowed enemy if the rich-guy issue hadn't blown up in their face. Multiple Choice Mitt can dance the anti-choice jig as long as the cameras are on and the nay-sayers could have been bought off. So ... Plan D?
No, make that Plan E for Estrogen. D was Drill, Drill, Drill. This is yet another gimmick!.
Take their consideration of Tom Ridge. Qualified, competent, experienced, well liked and helps land the hugely important swing state of Pennsylvania. Naturally logic goes out the window with this gang. Ridge was completely unacceptable because he holds a reasonable position on reproductive rights. That's it. Since Ridge was sent packing by the folks who have the power to tell the titular leader of the Republican Party what to do, the stack of applications got pretty slim very fast.
Palin is a narrow ideologue: pure on guns, god if not gays, and more like Cheney (but with better aim) than the mythical independent-minded man McCain would like you to think he is despite agreeing with George Bush's legislative agenda 95% of the time. It's almost as if they ticked off resume points on all the potential candidates for VP and she was the only one left standing that would be acceptable to the mob of Christianists, war-mongers and intolerant hate peddlers that permeate the GOP activist base -- the pick's strategic idiocy and betrayal of the nation's security her unfathomable incompetence risks be damned.
Risking Boos on the Convention floor would have made for horrible TV.
To fear this pick, to disfavor mocking it but instead taking it seriously enough because together Palin and McCain represent a some kind of break with the attempt to tie Bush to McCain is to live in another world and ignore the reality that this team represents more of the same old GOP, not a new approach free of the constraints of the DC power elite. Indeed, scorn is exactly what is called for in a "change election" when they again calculate the odds of winning at the expense of competent governing.
Ridicule is not only acceptable, it is required. Heckuvajob Johnny.
One need only watch the wingnuts finally getting off their hands and jumping with joy, emptying their checkbooks in the process now that they have an excuse to walk back all the nasty things they've said about McCain over the years.
This is worse than more of the same, it's spineless. Cowardly Republicans are something we've all had ENOUGH of. Obama's theme has always been about judgment. This doesn't change his narrative and merely reinforces the meme of McCain's pathetic pandering to the power-brokers of the right wing.
I can't help but think that not even McCain thinks he can win this thing, knowing he's a sacrificial lamb. He has to recognize he's a mere tool, a placeholder keeping a dying brand of conservative on life-support. Never in a million years would he let the nation he says he loves be entrusted to someone who's most consequential executive decision was not to buy a bridge to nowhere.
If 72-year-old two-time cancer survivor John McCain were to be elected President (god forbid), the person who would be one heart-beat away from the job would be a “non-partisan” Republican Christian cultist with (not even) one term as governor of a large state full of yahoos, no knowledge of foreign policy and strong ties to the oil bidness.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.
[Cross-posted at E Pluribus Unum]
Why else would he entrust this part-time governor/part-time hockey mom to be a breath away from the most important position any human being can hold? Sarah Palin is an unbelievably inexperienced political novice with zero national exposure or international credentials who knows nadda about national security. That might work in the Great White North, but it doesn't cut it for leading a superpower.
Does John McCain really think she is fit to sit in the Oval Office when the American people don't know her whatsoever -- yet we would be expected to follow her during the next crucial and challenging years at a time of predictable crisis if (horror of horrors) President McCain should drop fricking dead?
You would do that to us John? Really? You'd entrust this nation you say you love to someone destined to get rolled by every other country on the planet her first week on the job, sending us into god knows what before your corpse is cold. This is the most shameful display of do-anything, say-anything to get elected bullshit I've seen, and I've seen a lot of that over the years.
If this is the caliber of executive decision-making we can expect from a McCain administration, god save us all.
Biden could take charge from minute-one, let alone day-one. There are enough people supporting Obama he could as us to jump into a roaring fire and a goodly amount of us would get scorched. McCain would command at least respect for the office if not his brand of politics even from the likes of me, and we'd snap to attention and salute him if that's what it took to make things better.
But Sarah Palin? Are you fricking kidding me? You should be ashamed John, you really should. She wouldn't know where to lead us even if she could gain enough respect for us to follow. Of all the reasons John McCain shouldn't be president, this ranks up there as the number one disqualifier.
I'm taking Minnesota off the dime and putting it fully in Obama’s corner this week. RCP still puts the Gopher State as a toss-up with Obama up by 4.5%, but it’s clear with Electoral-Vote.com putting him up 47%-42% in a state that was carried by the Dems every election since Reagan's '84 landslide (not even Nixon could take it) and Pollster.com's trend estimate showing the Democrat with a 7.5% lead there -- plus FiveThirtyEight.com's list of all the Minnesota polls throughout the summer show Obama leading every time concluding that McCain only has a 17% chance of taking those 10 electoral votes as things stand right now.
Mind you, this could all change since the GOP enjoys the home field advantage with their upcoming convention in the Twin Cities, it's nonetheless long odds. So color the MN map blue for now.
Note there's no post-convention Obama bounce reflected in any of the state-by-state analysis yet. Only the national trends are indicating an uptick in the Illinois Senator's numbers that can be correlated directly to this last week's festivities since there isn't really enough individual statedata to go by. The FL, OH NC, PA and Tx polls announced Tuesday, 8/26, and CO, FL, NM, NV, PA and RI Wednesday 8/27 can only show us a baseline where the candidates started out immediately on the heels of the Biden for VP announcement, but before the full effect of Obama's remarkable acceptance speech could sink in.
There is enough in those polls to take out the crayons again, even if it's too early to tie the new blue found in Nevada directly to anything that came out of Denver. Changing Colorado from yellow to blue no doubt has something to do with the invasion of Democrats there this week which, unlike Minnesota, has been a true battleground right along. Pollster.com's trend methodology doesn't lend itself to quick movement of a state from one column to another, but 538 and E-V switched CO and NV to Obama -- barely. Swinging barely the other way are Montana and the Dakotas, but really, who cares?
More interesting is the new colors for the Carolinas which are moving in opposite directions. A troubling trend in Ohio and Pennsylvania moves Ohio back to "pick 'em" and Pennsylvania displaying weaker support for the Democrat but still in his pocket. Here's where I'm hoping an enduring bounce will erupt.
Just my informed guestimate, but the combination of Thursday night with McCain's inexplicable selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will not only move undecideds to Obama, but push the PUMAs away from McCain. This is a transparent pander to disaffected Clinton supporters who are way smarter than the Rovellians understand -- it's beyond insulting. Offering a token substitution to supporters of the single best female politician of the age with a GILF known as Ameirca's Hottest Governor, who stands for everything Hillary isn't just won't cut it. Again the GOP uses smoke and mirrors, convinced you and I are just plain dumb. Palin's experience as a part-time mayor and being brand new on the job as Governor of a state wracked by Republican corruption can't hold a candle to Hillary's qualifications even before she moved into the East Wing of the White House.
To my eye, we now know McCain is simply not serious about the job he's applying for and has delivered tepid supporters with a less tribal sense of GOP party loyalty yet another excuse to sit this thing out. McCain is too fearful of losing his die-hard conservative base to ever again deserve the maverick reputation he spent a lifetime nurturing.
Is their bench really so shallow they put up a yet another politician being investigated for corruption by her own party, alleged to have used her political clout to get her ex-brother-in-law fired?
Yet for all that, I'm still keeping Alaska in the toss-up category, dammit. But look for it to turn blue next week with Ted Stevens still rolling along, having won his primary and energizing the Democrats who should be noticed in the Anchorage Press's poll due soon. Unfortunately it will be a short-lived victory once the pick of the popular Palin is put in the mix. Alaska is no longer in play.
Is Sarah Palin ready to be President?
Let's not kid ourselves: John McCain is old. Very old. And not in the greatest health. He's had cancer and his mental faculties are starting to, um, show some wear and tear. Actuarially speaking, it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility that he could die in office or be incapacitated for long periods of time.
If, God forbid, that happens, do you feel good about Sarah Palin running the country? Do you think she can be Commander in Chief of the United States Armed Services?
Clearly, this is McCain attempting to grab the spotlight back from the Democrats by making a bold new pick for the national ticket. And by picking a dynamic young executive (and how badly pissed is the older Carly Fiorina right about now?) McCain's daring the traditional media to say she's not qualified to be president.
I can hear the talking points now: "Oh, yeah? She's the same age as Obama. She's been at the top as long as him. And, unlike Obama, she's an actual executive, not just a legislator."
The danger for the Republicans is that the American people will say, "Not so fast." Think about it: Obama has been on the national stage for nearly two years. He's been examined, picked over, and vetted by the national media. We know him. We know his temperment, his comportment, his attitudes. It has taken that long for people to make an informed decision about Obama.
What makes you think that the American people will only need two months (or, realistically, two weeks when the campaign goes into high gear) to make an informed decision about Sarah Palin? And that's not even getting into her ties with all the other corrupt politicians in Alaska (her former chief of staff is indicted Sen. Ted Stevens' campaign manager) or her own well-known ethical lapses.
And another thing: if McCain thinks he can erase the gender gap by picking a woman, he better think again. Instead of enhancing Palin (and the Republican party) by choosing her for the national ticket, I believe Palin will be diminshed by the inevitable comparisons with Hillary Clinton. In other words, Palin now becomes the consolation prize for women who really wanted Hillary. Here's the thing: she is nowhere near being equal to Hillary in experience, judgment, or readiness to become Commander in Chief. Instead, Palin looks awfully a lot like the new Dan Quayle.
Bottom line: this is McCain showing his desperation. Palin is who you choose if you know you have no real chance otherwise of winning. Palin for VP is McCain throwing a "Hail Mary" pass.
[cross posted at E Pluribus Unum]
However, faced with such an extraordinary evening culminating a week of outstanding choreography, not even the most jaded right wing tool could deny the historic nature of what they witnessed. (Note that Hannity and O'Reilly fled back to New York instead of making insta-analysis after the speech, opting for data mining and eating boogers found under their beds and waiting for Limbaugh to write their talking points for their radio hate fests in the afternoon.)
Pat Buchanan calls a Democrat's speech the best and most important political convention speech he had ever heard, going back 48 years. MSNBC to it's credit, along with CNN backed off the commentary and just let the show unfold for the most part.
David Gergan calls a Democrat's speech a Symphony and a Political Masterpiece.
WaPo/Fox's Charles Krauthammer? Obama was "Brilliant." Even the neocon's neocon can't deny what was right in his face.
"[A]wfully impressive performance," Bill Kristol.
Greta Van Sustren: "It was a great speech." "Dazzling," "Dazzling," "Dazzling," "Dazzling," but can he deliver, deliver, deliver, deliver? (She truly is awful.) Pollster Frank Luntz answered her, predicting a predictably inflated 10 point Obama bounce, that the change Barack talks about will not come from him, but from the American people. Luntz reminded us of the line from the speech that change doesn't come from Washington. Change is brought to Washington. [Ooo, make that 5 Greta "Dazzlings."]
Bubba got their notice too.
Karl Rove had enough integrity (I can't believe I wrote that) not to simply parrot Sean Hannity disingenuously trashing Bill Clinton's speech the night before, but talked about Clinton being the first to lay the groundwork for an anti-McCain argument at the Convention -- an argument Obama ran with last night. Peggy Noonan swooned for the Clenis as well.
Even some conservative commentators were impressed. Karl Rove said on Fox's Hannity and Colmes, "He gave the best argument offered thus far on the third day of the convention for Barack Obama. He gave a comprehensive view domestically and internationally. It wasn't his endorsement tonight that mattered...but what he did do is he set a theme: Restoring the American dream at home and America's leadership abroad." Peggy Noonan writes in the Wall Street Journal that "halfway through" Clinton's speech "I thought: The Master has arrived. Crazy Bill, the red-faced Rageaholic, was somewhere else. This was Deft Political Pro Bill doing what no one had been able to do up to this point at the convention, and that is make the case for Barack Obama."So, how did Rove assess Obama's acceptance speech? "Clintonian." High praise, at least in what passes for gray matter between Rove's ears. Rove mostly played the role of wonk instead of speech critic, examining the argument Obama make that he saw coming from the Bill Clinton preview, and advising how to counter it. I think he knows there's just no use fighting rhetoric and symbolism against our guy with their guy, who just isn't up to the task.
They're all putting a happy face on everything, but you can just tell the GOP punditocracy is freaked. It must be even worse in the lobbyist encrusted trenches of McCain Central.
Lone Fox nay-sayer Juan Williams was unsatisfied that not enough inspiration, not enough emotion, not enough MLK (even though having MLK,III and his sister speaking should pretty much cover that). Williams felt Obama didn't take advantage of the moment, not giving us enough of the stuff McCain and Co. says is the reason Obama is all fluff.
To Williams, I say: ENOUGH.
Take that Gramps.
Thanksgiving is gonna be interesting for the McCain clan . . . if they can only decide which house to have dinner at.
Sure, that was a cheap shot. Here's something more highbrow dealing with judgment and pre-9/11 thinking.
Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) on Sept. 10, 2001, warning against the Bush administration’s approach:The next day, that fateful day, Condi Rice was scheduled to give a speech on the threats we faced in the 21st Century. There wasn't a mention of terrorism in the draft. It was all about selling missile defense systems for Raytheon and McDonald-Douglas. After the terrorists struck they tried to cloak her speech as some sort of national secret out of sheer embarrassment.
We will have diverted all that money to address the least likely threat while the real threats come into this country in the hold of a ship, or the belly of a plane, or are smuggled into a city in the middle of the night in a vial in a backpack.
Cirincione writes, “If George Bush had listened to Joe Biden instead of Donald Rumsfeld, the history of the past seven years would have been very different. We might have prevented 9/11.”
Judgment? McStoopid won't even be able to fill a third tier college basketball arena to announce his VP, choice (Nutter Auditorium no less.) It is to laugh. He's doing it on the anniversary of Katrina's landfall while another hurricane threatens the Gulf Coast.
I refuse to even consider that this thing is even going to be close.
Photo Via Kossack Iceberg Slim who has tons more from every night of the convention.
Best soundbyte of the night.
Balloon Drop? Feh! Lemme see the GOP beat fireworks and confetti cannons M.F'rs.
"Tonight, I say to the American people, to Democrats and Republicans and independents across this great land — enough!" Obama said. "This moment — this election — is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look like the last eight. On Nov. 4, we must stand up and say: ‘Eight is enough.' ”
But that's just fluff, indicative of the phenomenal support team that made Barack Obama unbeatable. But the red meat I've been dying to hear from him was reported this way by MoJo's David Corn:
And the smart campaigning goes on. Think about how many more contacts they make in the swing state of Colorado for the GOTV effort by opening up this historical event to 75,000 people. They picked up another 30,000 text-message subscribers across the nation tonight as well.
Obama sounded strong; he looked strong. "If John McCain wants to follow George Bush with more tough talk and bad strategy, that is his choice--but it is not the change that America needs," he said. Obama warned McCain to stop questioning his patriotism: "I've got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first." And, he said, don't go pulling the same-old, Rove-like stunts, accusing Democrats of being nothing but tax-raisers and national security weaklings:The times are too serious, the stakes are too high for this same partisan playbook. So let us agree that patriotism has no party. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain. The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America--they have served the United States of America.
If you were watching the cable news blowhards, it's likely you missed this impressive performance.
Glad I did. Otherwise I would have missed Will I Am doing "Yes We Can" live. Most coolness.
Mike Murphy, “GOP consultant and former senior strategist for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign,” was on MSNBC’s panel last night to discuss the effectiveness of the Democratic Convention and Obama’s campaign and choice of speech venue where he was nearly shouted off the stage by the nearby audience for repeatedly stating that Bill and Hillary Clinton were going to vote for John McCain.
That was shortly before publishing more GOP concern-troll hackery on Time Inc.’s blog Swampland (Apropos, no?)
Here’s little piece of news for all of you whiz kids in the nooose bidness: if you want to know something about Democrats, NEVER ASK A REPUBLICAN! They’re stone-cold liars. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.
If you want to keep looking like idiots by being fooled time and time again by people who repeatedly lie right to your face (and then laugh at you behind your back), don’t say you haven’t been warned
[Cross-posted at E Pluribus Unum]
1) The poll numbers coming out of the Democratic Convention seldom bear any resemblance to the election results.
2) The upcoming debates and two months of advertising and “news” media wars will decide the election, just like those of the recent past.
3) Barack and Michelle Obama had one best chance to show that they are regular (not scary, or "other") people on a national stage and that’s what we’ve been watching.
4) They’re running against the Republicans.
5) The Obama campaign realizes that “the game” is about scorching the earth for your opponent with the disaffected dumbshits of American who, quite unfortunately, decide our elections.
6) Did I mention that they’re running against the Republicans?
7) Joe Biden is the Vice Presidential nominee and, in a debate, he can cut an opponent’s liver out and eat it with a charming smile.
8) The Villagers like Joe Biden.
9) The DFHs, via the intertubes and the establishment media’s desire to try to rescue themselves from their increasing irrelevancy, are influencing the narratives of the debate.
10) There probably aren’t enough racist throwbacks who vote left alive in America to continue to afflict us with their political choices, at least nationally.
One more thing: John McCain is a decrepit, paranoid, egomaniacal, phony with a short fuse and that won’t make a very favorable comparison with the handsome, self-possessed, dedicated, public servant who always keeps his cool and people will notice that as they are ever-more contrasted each day until the election.
[Cross-posted at E Pluribus Unum]
Word reaches us that Obama's acceptance speech from Invesco Field will be delivered from a stage decorated with marble columns. Alex Koppleman is upset:
I suppose there's an outside chance this could actually look good when it's finished and all the trappings are in place. But right now it just seems incredibly tone-deaf. The Obama campaign should expect John McCain's camp to attempt to use the speech against Obama, as it has so successfully turned his popularity against him before. Why hand the campaign additional ammo on a silver -- well, in this case, marble -- platter?Dial it back, Koppelman -- ain't you never been to Washington DC? The joint is full of marble columns. In fact, Obama (and McCain, too) wants the job that comes with a house that has...wait a minute! That reminds me of something...
Yeah! Yeah! Ya' GOTTA get yourself some mawble cawlums!! The Romans had 'em -- and they didn't do too bad, right? Hey, you know what? Take a good look at the White House! Notice anything classy on the porch? CAWLUMS!! So, come on down to Mike’s Marbleopolis, and get yourself some CAWLUMS!!
[cross posted at E Pluribus Unum]
Seriously, don't quit your day job lady.
You'd think this was her first election -- and evidently it's the first time she actually paid attention to one. Obviously it was all about Hillary for most of the the Talk Left crew, most of the time -- and not for policy reasons, just pure gender identification. Now it's just vanity and a vain attempt to save face in a future that is passing them by.
Post-Rational indeed. (Would it be sexist to call them "PROBLEMs" instead of PUMAs-- Post Rational Old Broads Loathing Every Man?)
[HT Kossack DemFromCT for this definition pf Post-Rational:
"Rachel Maddow's observation about Clinton supporters who are not making decisions based on logic, such as Debra Bartoshevich, who thinks McCain will support Roe v Wade."]
Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer is just too damn cool.
Of course, I only knew that since I was watching one of the other networks (flipping between FOX and CNN). I see from the replay that MSNBC was more interested in whether Bill Clinton would hold up a "Unity" sign or not instead of airing Schweitzer's speech, where he had the crowd so involved if he had chanted "Drill, Drill, Drill!" they would have cheered stomped and looked around for T. Boon Pickens.
Montana's Governor is obviously one of the main reasons that formerly deep red state is in play this time around. Hillary couldn't have had a better warm-up act if Dave Chappel had come out of retirement or the Rolling Stones did a set before she came out.
Four years ago, Barack Obama used this stage and became a rock star. Folks that watched any other network besides MSNBC saw rising "country" rock star on the rise last night.
This went on all night, but the replay of the commentary and Hillary's speech were fine later on and the closed captioning was not troubled either.
Sure seemed deliberate. No other channel was touched.
Stuff happens to be sure. Did anyone elsewhere have any problems with MSNBC last night? If it happens again with Bill Clinton or Joe Biden, I'll know there's a rat, just not how widespread it is. Either way, I'll be on the horn to the FCC as well as the DNC. Tape's already been rolled and I got more blanks.
once I could just barely tune in Detroit's Air America affiliate, WDTW,
1310AM -- not at all in over a year. However, in a world where broken
clocks are correct a couple of times a year Rush is absolutely right
about something he used to observe all the time about polling.
on polls is perhaps the laziest type of "journalism" the "drive-by
media" engages in, according to Limbaugh anyway, and the proof is CNN's
latest survey they did with Opinion Research.
In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47
percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount
supporting the Arizona senator.
“This looks like a step backward
for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” says CNN
Polling Director Keating Holland.
“Even last week, just before
his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls
tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain,” adds
So what’s the difference now?
It may be supporters of Hillary Clinton, who still would prefer the
Senator from New York as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters, registered Democrats who want
Clinton as the nominee, are now backing Obama. That’s down from 75
percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say
they’ll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.
“The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has
gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most although not
all of the support McCain has gained in that time,” says Holland.
Yadda, Yadda. Lame even by Cable News standards.
see, news organizations are supposed to be in the business of reporting
the latest current events, however what they really engage in is
infotainment with a hefty dose of cultural/social/political
engineering. If you want to know what the "news" is, explore that
newfangled InterTubez thingy, use Teh Google and all that. Television
"News" is simply "E!" and "Entertainment Tonight" set in Washington
D.C. and New York instead of Hollywood and Caans.
week, but a production team still has to justify their existence? Put
out a poll, get the results, shape the numbers by your "reporting" and
so-called "analysis" to fit within the story-line you want to tell, and
call that "news." It's reality TV with the Grandest of prizes.
I'm always highly suspect when a poll is put
in the field by a network or media outlet and reported on as some kind
of "exclusive." They're making the news, not reporting on events.
What's the difference between FOX paying for a poll and the National
Enquirer paying a source for a story? Which is worse? For my money,
I've got more respect for the integrity of the tabloids paying someone
to spill the beans than an ABC/Washington Post poll that is literally
creating a story our of whole cloth.
That's not to say that
there isn't a certain value to polling data, some utility for the
public at large to hear what their fellow citizens believe. They're
interesting and often irresistible, especially to a political junkie
like me, and Limbaugh. While Rush and I have gone our separate ways, we
both get ticked when we see a poll colored in a way that doesn't
support our preconceived notions and conducted and/or presented in a
sloppy and transparently bias way by a supposedly objective media
I'll leave tearing apart polls that I like to Rush,
since he enjoys that so much and has so much air-time to fill between
trips to the bank. But I doubt he'd be as interested in telling his
listeners what a farce CNN made of it's latest poll as I am interested
in letting my readers spot a blatantly disingenuous piece of jornamalism as you are likely to see.
Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com deconstructs CNN polling analysis with a professional flair.
is a little bit of sleight-of-hand here. The analysis begins by
comparing Obama's performance in this new poll to CNN's
next-most-recent one, which had been conducted in late July. However,
CNN then switches to discussing a different poll, one
which was conducted in late June, and pulls several pieces of
information about the preferences of Hillary Clinton supporters from
that June version of its survey.
A lot has
happened, a lot of "news" occurred since July, let alone June, other
than Senator Biden being picked as VP. I hardly think his influence on
the campaign can even be measured yet since certainly there are a lot
of folks who were polled that didn't even know who was selected or even
who Joe Biden was, but that didn't stop "Teh! Most Trusted Name In
Nooze" from suggesting it was the PUMAs affection for the new heroine
of the conservative world (unbelievably) Hillary Clinton.
In fact, as Nate points out, "The best way to test that [Obama's numbers are down because Hillary's people are upset with the VP pick] would
be to compare a poll conducted immediately before the VP pick to one
conducted immediately after, before other events had a chance to
intervene." There's so much that we don't know about this poll,
like were Clinton backers even distinguished in July since they only
tell us about their June opinions.
It's what this poll doesn't
say that is the problem, especially when the pollsters don't even tell
us everything they know about the poll.
CNN has not
released any additional detail on at least its last three polls: no
complete set of topline results, and certainly no detailed
cross-tabular information. The only information we get is the
information that their analysts decide to make available to us.
every other reputable polling organization . . . routinely makes this
kind of information available. A handful of others are less consistent
about it, however, they tend to strike a far less editorial tone in the
presentation of their results than does CNN.
very curious how many of the PUMAs now pledging our future to John
McCain's hands voted for Kerry or Gore instead of Bush. That statistic
alone could blow CNN's take on this story out of the water. I know
anecdotal evidence is meaningless when it comes to statistical
analysis, but I can name three ladies who are Clinton supporters, that
voted for Bill and Hillary, yet voted for Bush twice. It's about
personalities for them, not "women's issues" whatsoever.
many are pro-life but voting for a woman trumped their ideological
bent? How many will admit that they are registered Republicans, or were
until this year? How many voted for McCain in 2000?
said my biggest problem with Hillary was her ability to be so divisive,
even when not trying to be. Now it's the media's new favorite meme, but
scrambled by wingnut talking heads and concern trolls in Right Wing
Blogistan using the subtleness of a jujitsu master. Chalk up another
"historical" aspect of this election. Never before has such attention
and influence been bestowed upon a loser in the primaries who didn't
lash out against their opponent or start a third party run after the
nomination was secured.
By all accounts Hillary was gracious as
any mortal could be after such a hard fought contest, and I never saw
or heard anything resembling disrespect to her from Obama. Sure, some
of his supporters can be obnoxious, but Hillary's PUMAs are just as bad
and no doubt a good number of her spiteful/victimized/traumatized
die-hard supporters would never vote for any other Democratic candidate
I think that it speaks volumes about Obama's grasp of
the dynamics of presidential politics and policy implementation that he
did not even consider Hillary as VP. For all the talk of Bill being a
loose cannon running around Washington unsupervised and without
portfolio or defined mission, had Obama won this November with her at
his side, her PUMAs -- vocal as they are -- could have kept the
administration beholden to their exaggerated influence and hostage to
Would that outcome be preferred to four more years
of ineffectual GOP rule and a McCain White House installed as a lame
duck from day one, of course it would. But Hillary insists that a
president should never be encumbered by a small cadre of people
determined to tighten his or her prerogatives. I think POTUS should be
reigned in more than the current Resident would permit, but Hillary
doesn't. After all, allowing Bush to have as much freedom of action as
he could has always been her excuse for voting to authorize using force
She didn't want Congress to micromanage policy, why
would she support unelected, self-appointed busy-buddies to meddle in
affairs of state. If Obama has given in to this sort of blackmail, if
he had spoiled these children and given in to them just to make them
get in line and STFU, it very well could have turned out that the next
President would have been owned by his losing opponent in the
primaries. That's just absurd.
In other words. . .
Sour grapes make people whine.
"Just 52 percent of self-identifying Clinton supporters say they are backing Obama while 21 percent are siding with John McCain and 27 percent are undecided or are looking for some other candidate to support.".
When asked “[i]f you honestly assessed yourself, is that something with which you're entirely comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable,” 11% of respondents in a recent Washington Post/ABC poll reported that they would be at least somewhat uncomfortable that Barack Obama would be the first African-American president.
Now I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that the 11-percenters aren’t uncomfortable with the fact that it is Barack Obama who would be the first African-American president, rather the some other black candidate, and that the number of people willing to admit outright that they’re racists is probably somewhat smaller than the number of actual racists who would never vote for a black man to be president.
Is there some way I can stress to you the importance that these people, being psychologically incapable to vote for Barack Obama, be discouraged from voting for John McCain? Has there ever been such a miserable zero-sum game?
If those throwbacks who couldn’t be comfortable voting for someone who holds virtually the same experience, policies and views as their chosen candidate and would choose instead someone who embodies the antithesis of those policies and views, because of the former candidate’s skin color, that seems to me a perfectly reasonable basis for removing said throwbacks’ right to vote in perpetuity (as well as, perhaps, additional social disapproval). Failing that, rational citizens who care about the actual temperament, judgment and competence of the person who runs this ever-more monarchical country should marshal every argument to nullify the throwbacks’ race-based alternative choice: John McCain.
So at least 11% of voters who are undecided or think that McCain is an alternative to Clinton need to be convinced that John McCain should never, ever be given the keys to our military and foreign policy. Based just upon McCain’s public record, and the Obama campaign’s willingness to tell the public what they should know, that shouldn’t be too very hard.
[Cross-posted at E Pluribus Unum]
I owe Miss Julie a nickel.
Friday afternoon, I had told her (and emailed Mark and Shep) saying I didn't think it was going to be Joe Biden.
"He's gotten awfully quiet and his friends always said he gets that way when he loses. No smilin' Joe, no coffee and bagels for the camped out reporters. And I read that Obama had notified the losers already. So -- no Joe."
"Wanna make it interesting?" she says.
"I hate looking into the crystal ball. I hate the taste of broken glass. [crickets] I'll bet you a nickel." So it goes.
We went to Friday night services at the synagogue where the rabbi asked everyone to turn off their cell phones. It's like the announcement before the movie starts, but I think it was also a pre-emptive move to keep the congregation from getting up, en masse, to phone their friends and family. You know, the sound of crickets during your sermon...not so good.
I kept my phone on vibrate.
Sure enough, 30 minutes later, my cell phone goes off. Even on vibrate it's pretty loud.
I work my way out into the aisle. "Excuse me, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me." I avoided Miss Julie's glance. It was my son, Michael.
"The press is saying Kaine and Bayh are out."
"Yeah? Well, I saw the Obama-Bayh bumper sticker on Drudge."
"Bogus. No union label."
"[Pause] It did look pretty crappy. Like they picked it out of a sample catalog from 1975. I gotta go."
I whispered myself back into my seat in the sanctuary. "Excuse me, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me." Miss Julie caught my eye, eyebrow raised. I shook my head.
Ten minutes later, during the rabbi's sermon, my phone goes off again. "Excuse me, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me." I avoid everyone's eyes. It's Michael again.
"Musarreff. Pervez Mushareff. Obama's picking Mushareff."
"It's why Mushareff had to resign. You can't be the vice-president if you're the head of a foreign government."
I hung up and headed back to the synagogue. "Excuse me, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me." Miss Julie's widened eyes are slightly menacing. I shake my head again. The services end and, during the reception afterwards, I explained the whole story.
"You so owe me on that bet."
"Way! So when are they going send the message? Watch -- they'll send it in the middle of the night."
"What? During the one time when NO ONE is watching for it? No way."
In the end, Obama had to pull the trigger when he got scooped by the press. No sense in being the last one with the story -- it kind of negates the whole idea of the text message to begin with.
Obama-Biden '08! On to Denver.
P.S. Somehow this reminds me of a story about Zero Mostel. When he was younger, Mostel's leg was badly injured in an accident. For a time, the doctors thought they might have to amputate his leg, but after multiple surgeries they saved it. His doctor was rightly proud of his work and asked Zero to appear at a medical conference where he (the doctor) was presenting a paper on the operation. Zero appeared and sat on stage next to the doctor. After a long, technical presentation on the techniques he used in the operations, he turned to Mostel.
"Zero, show them your leg." Mostel slowly rolled up his pant leg and raised his foot in the air for the audience of doctors to see. Thunderous applause. After it dies down, his doctor clears his throat.
"Zero. The other leg."
With a sly look, Zero displays the other leg.
That's the last thing Obama wanted: the other leg.
[cross posted at E Pluribus Unum]
Check out the Kossacks. Everyone breathlessly trying to beat everyone else with the "Breaking" story that the Chartered Jet sent from Chicago to Delaware and the Secret Service arriving at Biden's house mean Joe was laying low for a reason.
There's over 30 Biden posts in the hour after the networks confirmed the news. That's got to be some kind of a record. Below are all the VP speculation/confirmation blog post that the LBN Portal keeps track of overnight. Note that many of the D-Kos Diaries were deleted, probably when the the first comment or two told the diarist to STFU with the redundant crap.
From Kossack PLU Tim and the Eurithmics, Dave Stewart's AMERICAN PRAYER
(As usual, the size of the state reflects it's votes in the Electoral College)
More than a couple of folks have pointed out to me that (gloated, actually) that my map of the electoral college needs tweaked again -- and it ain't as rosy as it has been for Senator Obama even though there's no news from the race that captured my imagination in Alaska. It's still a toss-up as far as the data I have right now, but soon to change. Soon.
Most of the pollsters show significant movement in key states, cutting into Obama's electoral lead enough now that he either is winning but no longer has the magic number 270 in his pocket, or is still winning but just barely has over 270, his comfort margin evaporated.
Everything will change as the polls start reflecting his VP choice.
Everything will change as the polls reflect the public's reaction to the Democratic Convention.
Everything will change when McCain announces his VP and after their convention.
Everything always changes in August.
Four years ago at Electoral Vote Predictor, Kerry was winning 317-202 on August 18th, slipping to 286-233 by August 22nd, and losing 242-280 by August 31st. By the time it was all over, it was Bush 286 - Kerry 252.
What's different? The Democrat's August slide took place well after the convention last time around. Edwards was picked on July 6th and the convention took place at the end of the month. Kerry enjoyed a month-long bounce, which started to wane just as the GOP Convention took place from August 30 to September 2. Kerry couldn't catch another wave.
The dynamics of the calendar couldn't be different this time around. Obama will be in full bounce mode and on the upswing with the attention on his team overshadowing the GOP's festivities in Minneapolis. This time there will be competing bounces -- possibly canceling each other out. But McCain won't be able to surge alone like Bush did after his convention sucked the air out of the media.
Momentum means a lot in these things, since so very often perception is reality in politics.
So where are we today? RCP has (predictably) the map drawn in the worst possible light for Obama, 228 to McCain's 174 with 136 toss-ups. With leaners pushed over the edge, their map gives the edge to McCain, 274 to Obama's 264, but they still have Obama up by 1.4% nationwide which is less than even FOX that shows Obama +3.
Rasmussen Reports Obama +2, and despite what seems to be ominous tiding from CNN, Rasmussen is impressed by the "amazing stability" of the contest with Obama still up 264 to 247 with a 58% chance of winning according to their market data.
The current Electoral Vote Predictor has Obama just under the magic number, polling in at 269 electoral votes (tie territory) and M.cCain an improving 256. Pollster.com puts 87 votes in the toss-up column, but still gives Obama 260 to McCain's at a dismal 191, but better than last week when Obama dominated.
FiveThirtyEight.com colors the map bluer than the others and still shows Obama winning outright, 273.7 to 264.3 even with Ohio an ugly shade of red instead of the toss-up color on the other site's maps (and where I put it since as I explained in previous posts, the Ohio numbers are skewed by an outlier poll). BTW, Nate's take on the VP choice is spot on. The clock favors Biden and Clinton, and ticks more her way with every minute.
So what changed? North Dakota is now a toss-up instead of leaning McCain, which in my opinion is horrible news for the GOP. Obama-mentum is moving west. McCain is barely up by 3 points in a state Republicans have won overwhelmingly since the 80s. No excuse, not even the usual non-sequitur that McCain is a POW explains this.
Inexplicably, Arizona is also moving away from McCain, but he's still safe enough in his home state not to worry too much just yet. Arkansas has also moved from deep red to merely leaning McCain, and could become a true battleground state if a certain New York Senator and favorite daughter is on the Dem ticket.
Moving in the wrong direction are New Hampshire and Minnesota, now true toss-ups at Pollster with Obama leading by just a point or two on the heels of new numbers from ARG and Rasmussen in New Hampshire and doing just slightly better in Minnesota unless you count the MPR poll, which was in the field for two weeks which makes the value of it's Obama +10 conclusion a bit suspect.
Finally, Indiana is shoring up for McCain who went from a one-point dog a month ago to a 6 point winner according to Survey USA. But since Evan Bayh couldn't deliver Indiana for Clinton, I don't expect him to be counted on to deliver it for Obama. I don't think Biden helps Obama there, but Hillary helps Obama everywhere -- and maybe then the damn PUMAs will get over themselves.
The big winner this week: Toss-Up +20! McCain is +19 from last week and Obama is -14 after two full weeks campaigning in Europe and vacationing in Hawaii. This thing is about to get real dynamic in the next couple of weeks.